Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic, We Should Prepare Now

Re:Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic... by jacquesm on Sunday February 23, 2020 @12:38PM (#22398197)

Or Iran, for that matter.

https://time.com/5789360/iran-coronavirus-death-toll/

8 dead on 43 cases suggests severe under-reporting of the number of people infected. That in turn suggests that testing is inadequate which may cause the disease to spread further than necessary. The fact that infected Iranians have turned up in Lebanon and Canada is further proof that the number of infections is likely higher than reported.

If we take the 2-3% mortality reported elsewhere as the base than the 8 people confirmed dead would suggest at least 300-400 infections, or about 8 times higher than officially reported by the Iranian authorities.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic... by emmelaich on Sunday February 23, 2020 @07:55PM (#22400705)

What interests me is the low or zero figures elsewhere.

Especially Indonesia; surely they have significant numbers of Chinese travellers?

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Past Time to Tell the Public:It Will Probably Go Pandemic... by jacquesm on Sunday February 23, 2020 @09:00PM (#22401022)

Latin America and Africa have the temperature going for them but especially Africa has a ton of back-and-forth with China so you can expect there are or will be cases there.

Indonesia is an interesting case especially geographically. Maybe there is some data on how well they did during previous pandemics?

[ Parent | on HN ]