I think she'll keep smoking as long as she doesn't face any repercussions for it. Right now, she keeps getting free medical care to fix anything wrong with her, so she has no incentive to get better. If she didn't have that, then she'd have to make the choice between continuing to smoke, or having to be immobile and in pain because she couldn't keep getting medication and surgery to mask the health problems she's bringing on herself.

Speaking as someone who has parents whom smoke a lot, I think you don't understand the mentality of smokers or the addictive behavior of smoking.

Nothing is going to stop her from quitting smoking, even if she was denied pain medication or surgery. They'd find other ways to numb the pain and just walk straight into an early grave.

But... she does have repercussions? She has chronic back pain and deteriorating health...

Pain pills are either A) not going to be strong enough B) harshly addictive. Probably opioids.

Insurance and single-payer aren't the only two choices. It is possible to not like either.