We have no way of evaluating the truth of this claim. China has not been straightforward in its count of infections and fatalities [0]. The government has banned funerals for victims and ordered the cremation of their remains [1].

[0] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/02/12/corona...

[1] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-virus-funeral-o...

Unless you think China is overstating the seriousness of it, this supports my point.

Containment in China is not going well. Other countries containment + quarantining China is going well.

That is exactly my point -- other countries are effectively containing the virus to China, and it appears to be working very well.

This is unlikely. What is more likely is that all of Chinas poor neighboring countries are simply not reporting cases.

North Korea, Mongolia, Nepal, Northern Thailand, North Vietnam, North India, Eastern Russia, will keep this infection going until the next major outbreak next winter.

Only a minority of countries are doing that. It might work now because most cases are in China. If self-sustaining outbreaks run out of control in Thailand and Singapore, will travellers from there be blocked too? It quickly becomes a game of cat and mouse.