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Re:Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU by skat20phys on Sunday February 09, 2020 @08:39AM (#22282033)
Your intuition is right but it's complicated.

This paper gives a discussion of different biases:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4504518/

There's a standard paper on this topic the authors I forget atm but all estimates will be biased. The best estimates are sort of unintuitive and account for estimated time-to-death and the time since diagnosis.

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