Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU

Re:Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU by kdumont on Saturday February 08, 2020 @11:48AM (#22276683)

That's exactly what I don't understand. Logically, wouldn't deaths typically lag diagnosis by some amount? If so, we would expect the death rate to be higher than current deaths/cases because we need to use the confirmed cases from some number of days ago. That number of days being the average time between someone being diagnosed and dying.

Another stat is that there are roughly 700 deaths and 2400 recoveries, which would indicate a mortality rate of 23%. Of course, this suffers from the same delay issue as the 2% calculation (T_death < T_recovery). But the possible range is 2% < M_rate < 23%

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#repro

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Life and Death in a Wuhan Coronavirus ICU by skat20phys on Sunday February 09, 2020 @08:39AM (#22282033)

Your intuition is right but it's complicated.

This paper gives a discussion of different biases:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4504518/

There's a standard paper on this topic the authors I forget atm but all estimates will be biased. The best estimates are sort of unintuitive and account for estimated time-to-death and the time since diagnosis.

[ Parent | on HN ]