Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 805, Passing SARS

Re:Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 805, Passing SARS by whycombagator on Saturday February 08, 2020 @10:30PM (#22280225)

> Death rate in Hubei province is 780/27100 = 2.88% > Death rate in all the other provinces combined is 32/10127 = 0.32%

Please remember that the number of people to the right in your formula are not all recovered. They could still die. So the chances of dying from the virus _could_ be higher than the %s you have calculated.

> So the death rate in Hubei is 9 times of other provinces. Is this really possible?

The numbers suggest as much.

While I share your skepticism of the Chinese reported numbers - remember that the Hubei province is the epicenter and is currently locked down. It is resource strained. So I expect the rate of death there to be higher than elsewhere.

I also expect the Zhejiang numbers to trend in the other direction, as they have just announced it will be locked down too.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 805, Passing SARS by datashow on Saturday February 08, 2020 @10:46PM (#22280271)

I agree that Hubei province is the epicenter so we would expect higher death rate. But don't know whether 9 times high is reasonable.

Also, the same reasoning would conclude that China's death count in SARS in definitely fake.

[ Parent | on HN ]