Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C...
by yread on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @03:34AM
(#22167544)
This is one scary graph
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Log-linear_plot_of_corono...
Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C...
by phreeza on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @05:59AM
(#22168214)
A logistic curve looks exponential until it doesn't. There is no telling just from looking at this when it will plateau.
Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C...
by mirimir on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @04:47AM
(#22167881)
Yeah, and if you project to Feb 28, you get ~100 million deaths. Deaths have plateaued somewhat over the past few days, but even then we're looking at a million or so.
Re:Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New C...
by internet_user on Tuesday January 28, 2020 @03:30AM
(#22167528)
There is a table circulating the internet that’s been eerily accurate for the last week or so. In both cases and deaths. I will try to find it and link to it ina follow up comment.
It predicts a million deaths in a month from now, based on the observed R0 of this coronavirus.
An October 2019 novel Coronavirus simulation by Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, World Economic Forum, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [1][2], projected 65 million dead and widespread knock-on economic and societal problems during 18 months of pandemic. Not that this is a likely outcome for nCoV-2019 (which is likely less lethal than the imaginary virus), but it's worth understanding SARS-like viruses can be significantly more serious than the flu.
Secondly, the flu is "baked in the cake" in our general medical and societal infrastructure. A novel virus will be additive to flu infections and even at similar rates of infection/death could cause a noticeable impact. As an analogy, 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, but if some catastrophic, widespread automotive software bug/malware caused an additional 1.25 million road deaths in 2020, it would rightfully be a massive story, could potentially overwhelm emergency and medical services, and would be something to be concerned about mitigating as much as possible.
[1] http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.htm... [2] https://youtu.be/AoLw-Q8X174