He's comparing the most popular car from Tesla to some of the least-popular cars from the other manufacturers. Audi sold 200k cars in 2019, but they were SUVs, not sedans. I would guess the Model 3 sales will crater when the Model Y comes out.

I wonder how we'd generate a fairer graph. Is the data available anywhere? (Ideally the raw data of sales by manufacturer bucketed by vehicle type.)

"This isn't as unlikely as it seems" In what fantasy world do you live in?

Parent cited a graph that demonstrates a lot of potential. Do you care to make an argument and cite any sources?

Nothing in the graph implied other car companies are going to go out of business.

Meanwhile, Toyota and Honda sell 10 as many cars to the vast majority of people who will never be able to afford Teslas, and the cars work long-term.

https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019-u-s-auto-sales-figures-by...

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-reliability-owner-satisf...

> When the Model 3 first came out in 2017, Consumer Reports gave it an average predicted reliability score based on the survey results at the time about the Model S... The car maintained its average score for predicted reliability in October 2018... The new survey data shows that the car has dropped from average to below-average reliability.

> The Tesla Model S lost CR’s recommendation in October 2018 largely because of suspension problems.

> The Model X SUV has always had below-average reliability through its lifespan,

Ford’s autobiography is good. One thing I learned from it is that the trajectory of Ford matched Tesla’s.

Ford started out making cars for the high end. No one wanted cars until they could win races. Then everybody wanted cars.

Tesla is a luxury brand for now. Will it be in a decade? I wouldn’t take that bet.

The issue is that to justify a $100B valuation at current revenues means that the standard of proof is "likely" and not "not unlikely."