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Re:US colleges struggling with low enrollment are closing at... by dahart on Monday January 13, 2020 @11:01PM (#22041739)
For what it’s worth, the St. Louis Fed published a report recently on the income and wealth “premium” that people with degrees get. There was a long thread here on HN. The income premium is how much money people with degrees make per year, versus people without degrees. The wealth premium is how much money people with degrees save by the time they retire, versus people without degrees.

The reports says the adjusted wealth premium is going to zero. However, note that people who have degrees actually save (a lot) more money on average, the report is controlling for several variables trying to answer a hypothetical question about the true “value” of college education.

The report also show the income premium is, on average, about a factor of 2 for 4-year degrees, and a factor of 3 for advanced degrees. Meaning that, on average, people with degrees earn twice as much as people without. Several different studies have concluded that this income premium is not entirely based on skills learned at college, but is partly cultural and preferential behavior to people with degrees. That’s not a good thing, but it should factor into your calculations of whether a degree is “worth it”.

> If I ended up owing 150k and could afford to pay back 1k a month, It would take me 12.5 years. I’m sorry but it’s just not worth it. I can’t think of many sober people that would disagree.

Just curious, why would you end up owing 150k? That’s a lot, and you can get an education for a fraction of that at some very excellent state and private schools. The article said literally that students were paying 1/3rd of suggested retail for tuition. And also why would 12.5 years payback make it not worth it, if your salary was double for the rest of your life?

Re:US colleges struggling with low enrollment are closing at... by jessehorne on Monday January 13, 2020 @11:08PM (#22041771)
I think the statistics sound nice and I think that earning a degree for much less than 150k is great! I'm just trying to figure out how much I'd have to be earning monthly for me to be okay spending 1k/mo paying something back for a dozen years. I think that I'd have to be earning 6k and live in a place where rent is super cheap. In those 12.5 years, I'd much rather be saving as much as I could, investing in property, stocks, business, anything...but that 1k a month is a lot and a degree doesn't guarentee that I'm going to be able to find a job that makes it comfortable for me to pay that sort of debt off.
Re:US colleges struggling with low enrollment are closing at... by dahart on Monday January 13, 2020 @11:20PM (#22041818)
I’d recommend forgetting your ballpark estimates, they’re pretty far away from what’s possible, they’re much closer to worst case than best. It’s probably not going to take 12 years. I’d also recommend going to college only if you want to, not purely for money, because it’ll help you get into work you aspire toward, or because you’re curious and love to learn. Talk to the school you’re interested in; if your income is low they offer all kinds of assistance, not just loans.

FWIW, I took student loans to pay my 4 year degree. I too thought it was going to take forever to pay off. Turns out it didn’t, I had them paid off in less than 4 years, after deferring them for a couple of years to do a masters.

I do have a wish list for our country to make education better and more accessible and less scary to people like you who want to go but worry about the finances. In the mean time, I hope you find a way.

Re:US colleges struggling with low enrollment are closing at... by jessehorne on Monday January 13, 2020 @11:41PM (#22041902)
I might just do that and see what they have to offer. I am curious and I love to learn. I have a strong desire to pursue higher education. I just end up doing that in my spare time, these days. Which is great! But I don't get the degree from it.
Re:US colleges struggling with low enrollment are closing at... by Gunax on Tuesday January 14, 2020 @12:35PM (#22047069)
At some point, it seems the cost of a degree pales to any loss in income--unless you plan to work fulltime while attending school.

When I was 19, quitting my pizza delivery job to attend school may have made financial sense. But who would leave at 24, or 29 to do the same?

Re:US colleges struggling with low enrollment are closing at... by imtringued on Tuesday January 14, 2020 @08:29AM (#22044519)
>And also why would 12.5 years payback make it not worth it, if your salary was double for the rest of your life?

You're forced to work for 12.5 years.

Re:US colleges struggling with low enrollment are closing at... by dahart on Tuesday January 14, 2020 @10:25AM (#22045563)
My gut reaction is it’s a choice. Nobody’s forcing you to do anything. That seems like a self-pitying victim framing, but I might be over-reacting too. If you want the option to not work, then yes accruing debt might be a bad idea. Going to college at all might seem strange if you don’t want to work at all, or you want to retire at 20. In that case, you’re consciously choosing to opt-out of a high salary, which is a fine choice, it just doesn’t actually equate to being forced either way.

I prefer thinking of it as my active choice that gives me a better option to achieve my goals. My plan (like most people, I think) was to work for 45-50 years before I retire, so 12.5 years is a small fraction. Having gone to college, I am enjoying a larger salary than I would have had otherwise for 45-50 years, and in my case my loans were paid off in 4 years.

Re:US colleges struggling with low enrollment are closing at... by lovich on Tuesday January 14, 2020 @12:36PM (#22047074)
That's not factoring in time to get the degree and any risk. What if you get hurt and can't work for a year early in your career? The interest on the loan is going to add a ton of time to the lifetime of the loan while you're not working
Re:US colleges struggling with low enrollment are closing at... by dahart on Tuesday January 14, 2020 @02:33PM (#22048378)
Yes you can concoct contrived scenarios that make it seem like a bad idea to borrow, this is true for any borrowing, not just college loans. There are always such risks in life, yes you could get injured or go broke or get sued. A cost-benefit analysis does not (and should not) include low-probability events or contrived worst case scenarios. You can do a separate risk analysis, get insurance, plan for contingencies, etc., but that is not part of the expected cost or expected benefit calculation.

Getting seriously injured is not an average case scenario, but there are loan deferments for such scenarios anyway. The interest on student loans is quite low, it does not add a “ton” of time to your payback period unless you borrow a ton and pay as slowly as possible.