News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by rayiner on Saturday January 04, 2020 @10:15PM (#21959391)
The chart of illegal drug expenditures as a percentage of average person consumption is wild. People did a lot of drugs in the 1970s and 1980. “In total, this paper calculates that illegal drugs accounted for 5 percent of total PCE in 1980. This high expenditure share is consistent with contemporaneous reports. For example, a Washington Post article estimated that Americans bought $35 billion of cocaine (O’Toole 1981).” That figure has fallen to under 1% today. Maybe the war on drugs worked.
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by peterwwillis on Saturday January 04, 2020 @11:01PM (#21959552)
Going from "we don't use as much coke as in the 80's" to "the war on drugs worked" is a bit like going from "we have less teen pregnancy now than in the 90s" to "abstinence worked". It's not only ignoring a very large number of alternate factors, but it's assuming the latter is a successful strategy, when all of the evidence points to the contrary.
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by eanzenberg on Sunday January 05, 2020 @12:20AM (#21959808)
Interesting you bring up abstinence because kids are having way less sex nowadays than in the past.
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by kingkawn on Sunday January 05, 2020 @01:02AM (#21959955)
Most definitely not because of abstinence education
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by unishark on Sunday January 05, 2020 @01:37AM (#21960050)
Because proving causation is always difficult if not impossible? Or because in both cases we have a personal bias that makes us not want those programs to have worked, despite not being able to disprove causation either?
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by eivarv on Sunday January 05, 2020 @07:23AM (#21960970)
Because in neither case has anyone actually even made a coherent argument for a causal effect that doesn't ignore all the other factors? Besides, when "all the evidence points to the contrary" is usually a bad sign...

There are a lot of things you aren't able to disprove that are (probably) not true.

Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by caublestone on Sunday January 05, 2020 @12:52AM (#21959912)
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by wyxuan on Saturday January 04, 2020 @10:18PM (#21959398)
Maybe, maybe not; cuz drugs have gotten cheaper, and there are how “legitimate sources” of drugs like opiates
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by elfexec on Sunday January 05, 2020 @02:51AM (#21960213)
That's an excellent point. It would be interesting to see a chart of the growth of legal pharmaceutical opiates vs the growth of illegal opiates in the past few decades. It won't necessarily show causation ( and maybe not even correlation ) but it would be nice to see how these two opiate markets ( legal and illegal ) grew during the war on drugs.
[dead]
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by topkai22 on Saturday January 04, 2020 @11:56PM (#21959727)
The data isn't there- survey data is showing declining use of prescription drugs abuse, and even what it does show is around 15% of the 12th grade population having ever abused prescription drugs, with less than 5% having used in the last month. See: https://www.drugabuse.gov/trends-statistics/monitoring-futur...

People in social groups that routinely use drugs tend to over estimate their prevalence in society at large. Even weed is below 50% lifetime use and 20% monthly use for 12th graders.

I'd argue fortnite is a bigger part of youth culture than opiates.

Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by erikpukinskis on Sunday January 05, 2020 @12:18AM (#21959794)
20% of youth seems like a huge number to me.

What percent do you think play Fortnite?

Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by topkai22 on Sunday January 05, 2020 @12:57AM (#21959936)
I said opiate use not Marijuana, which is around 5% monthly use. I'll easily concede Marijuana and alcohol use are major parts of youth culture, although again but as big as people using them think (which I didn't believe in high school / college either).

As for Fortnite share- there are ~76 million unique fortnite players in a month and supposedly 40-60% of them are between 18-24. I'm going to go with the low number. I have no good data on Fortnite play by country other than its popular in the USA and parts of Europe, but not in Asia, so I'll just say that 1/6 of the players live in the USA (again, probably pretty conservative). There are roughly 25 million 18-24 year olds in the US. So we get 76M*.4/6 = 5M for the number of monthly US fortnite players in the US, or roughly 20% of the population in question.

A lot more than opioid users, roughly the same as reported marijuana use, and a lot less than alcohol use.

Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by Sangama34 on Sunday January 05, 2020 @02:56AM (#21960221)
The war on drugs has worked for those it was meant to work. It has helped governments grab more power, engage in more violence and create the prison industrial complex we all abhor on HN.

>The monetary cost of U.S. domestic drug policy is equally remarkable. Since the War on Drugs began more than 40 years ago, the U.S. government has spent more than $1 trillion on interdiction policies. Spending on the war continues to cost U.S. taxpayers more than $51 billion annually

That is $1T to polices, contractors, private prisons, prison guard unions and so on. It is an economy in itself.

Here is plenty of information on the topic.

https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/four-decad...

Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by cookie_monsta on Sunday January 05, 2020 @06:43AM (#21960844)
> Maybe the war on drugs worked.

Meh. If you look at the next chart you can see that drug prices started to plummet in the mid 70s, probably aided by the opening up of smuggling routes from Colombia (my theory).

So expenditure on drugs isn't a reliable indicator here - if they had figures for quantities (ie, weight) bought/sold you may reach a different conclusion.

Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by the8472 on Sunday January 05, 2020 @08:11AM (#21961101)
Weight isn't ideal either. You would need to adjust for dose and interval.
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by Waterluvian on Saturday January 04, 2020 @11:43PM (#21959682)
I have a rock that keeps tigers away. Ever since I got it there have been no tigers in my house.
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by pnako on Sunday January 05, 2020 @01:00AM (#21959944)
I want to buy your rock.
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by rolltiide on Saturday January 04, 2020 @11:52PM (#21959713)
or its as simple as drug market got more competitive and diverse while wages also rose
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by refurb on Sunday January 05, 2020 @01:19AM (#21960008)
This is correct.

The numbers are % of PCE. So that number could go down for a number of reasons:

1. People buying less drugs

2. People spending less money on the same amount of drugs (lower prices)

3. People’s PCE is growing faster than the amount they spend on drugs

There are others I’m sure.

Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by koboll on Sunday January 05, 2020 @02:48AM (#21960205)
An explanation for 2 could also be drugs getting stronger. Given how much more potent modern cannabis is than it was in the 20th century, people might be spending the same amount relative to THC content--but there's much more THC in a gram of cannabis than there once was, so they have to buy much smaller amounts of cannabis for the same amount of THC.
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by nitwit005 on Sunday January 05, 2020 @02:41AM (#21960189)
That's a strange statistic to use to define success. Cocaine is expensive because it's illegal and is associated with harsh prison sentences. Cracking down on the drug might have increased the percent of income spent on it.
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by kingkawn on Sunday January 05, 2020 @01:01AM (#21959949)
Naw everyone just moved on to different drugs
Re:Including Illegal Activity in the U.S. National Economic ... by ct520 on Sunday January 05, 2020 @12:56AM (#21959935)
Hah - the overdose rate in the US and the casualty of people killed abroad say... war on drugs is a horrible failure