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Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by mandelken on Friday January 03, 2020 @04:33AM (#21944508)
I would happily take the other side of the bet on EVERY item here! But I do appreciate your boldness in predictions.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by anthony_barker on Monday January 06, 2020 @05:21PM (#21974112)
#3 seems possible - normally there is a recession every decade or so.
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by jb775 on Friday January 03, 2020 @11:08AM (#21947093)
Care to elaborate why?
Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by 0xffff2 on Friday January 03, 2020 @12:46PM (#21948299)
Not GP, but...

1) Practical quantum computing seems to have made little practical progress this decade. This is mostly a gut feeling on my part since I have no professional experience in the field.

2) Starlink will be a major competitor in the rural ISP space. The extremely low maximum density of ground stations means that they can't possibly be a major competitor in a dense urban core or even a dense suburban community.

3) I don't see any particular reason to believe this will happen anymore than that it won't.

4) In the sense that 1 is "more common" than 0, this one is probably true, but I have a suspicion that the economics don't work out nearly as well as we hope. The second half is already true (I work on research that supports making those new regulations)

5) ~~Not much of a prediction. It's already true in some circles.~~

Edit: I should say that it's already stylish in some circles to not own a smartphone. So far everyone I've met in that category still caries some kind of cellular device capable of making emergency calls at the very least. With a near-ubiquitous cellular network available, it's very hard to articulate a reason why you wouldn't use it in an emergency situation. Furthermore, with the rise of the cell network, payphones have fallen out of fashion, meaning that there's even less infrastructure today that there once was for those who wish to eschew cell phones entirely for whatever reason.

6) Again, not my area of professional expertise, but I don't think solar on every roof in the US would actually be enough affect this change. Wind is likely to meet push-back from neighbors, and I don't even know why hydro is listed. The grid will change radically over the coming century, but the next decade is going to see continued incremental change to draw down coal generation and increase storage capacity.

Re:Ask HN: A New Decade. Any Predictions? by Dylan16807 on Saturday January 04, 2020 @06:16PM (#21958332)
7) Posts lock after a couple weeks, so good luck with that one.