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Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by RussianCow on Thursday January 02, 2020 @04:31PM (#21940067)
> but is this "gambling"? I don't think so.

Of course it is, because you can't predict the future. You could have just as easily lost money investing in individual stocks, even ones that seemed like no-brainers at the time. Why do you think you're better than most other investors at making those investment choices?

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by tempsy on Thursday January 02, 2020 @05:46PM (#21940774)
Life isn’t risk free. Just because you can’t predict something doesn’t mean it’s inherently gambling.

But if that is your definition of gambling then every human gambles every single day just by living.

Personally I don’t think minimizing risk as far as I can is a particularly enlightened or interesting way to live ones life, but to each their own.

Certainly this past decade rewarded risk takers.

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by RussianCow on Thursday January 02, 2020 @07:04PM (#21941426)
> But if that is your definition of gambling then every human gambles every single day just by living.

I would indeed argue that this is the case, but that's probably not useful for the purposes of this discussion. :)

> Personally I don’t think minimizing risk as far as I can is a particularly enlightened or interesting way to live ones life, but to each their own.

That's perfectly fine, and I'm not trying to dissuade you or anyone else from actively trading if it is interesting and enjoyable to you. (FWIW I have also made very good returns doing this in the past, and had a lot of fun doing it—I only stopped because my risk tolerance changed.) But, except in specific circumstances[0], to call it anything but gambling is a bit disingenuous, and statistically speaking, you will most likely underperform the market.

[0]: In particular, if you have something that most other investors don't, such as data/information, faster algorithms, etc, it's entirely plausible that you can have an edge on the market and tip the odds in your favor. But this does not describe the vast majority of investors, let alone individuals doing this in their free time.

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by et2o on Thursday January 02, 2020 @05:52PM (#21940823)
Best to compare it to a known and easily accessible baseline such as index funds / passive investing. You are gambling relative to passive investing, in that you hope for higher returns but statistically you will achieve lower returns. Not that complicated.
Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by mrep on Thursday January 02, 2020 @06:59PM (#21941397)
Maybe median wise, but not mean. Most ETFs still have fees and they use Authorized participants to make the trades from individual stocks to the ETFs and thus they are also taking a cut. Investing yourself using a no fee broker involves no middleman whatsoever so it cannot possibly achieve a lower return in aggregate.
Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by et2o on Thursday January 02, 2020 @07:11PM (#21941477)
Yes, of course ETFs take a cut. They are not run by non-profits. They are still a reasonable baseline and standard marker for the broader market, given their typically quite small management fees.

More importantly are you suggestinging individuals buy and weight all components of an ETF like VOO (500 stocks) themselves? Pretty ridiculous. Tracking error is real and there is an extreme time cost which makes hypothetical strategies like that unreasonable for most investors.

I also just don’t understand what your comment has to do with mine in the first place.

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by mrep on Thursday January 02, 2020 @07:38PM (#21941696)
> I also just don’t understand what your comment has to do with mine in the first place.

You said "statistically you will achieve lower returns" which I pointed out is impossible mean wise due to the added fees.

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by et2o on Thursday January 02, 2020 @11:52PM (#21943298)
This is just “not even wrong.”

Yes, if you used a no fee broker to buy and sell (everyday...) the constituent 500-5000 stocks typically in a large index fund you could avoid the very low management fee.

In practice, that’s ridiculous. The management fee on a good ETF is less than pennies on the dollar. It’s the full time jobs of many people to do this. It takes a lot of time. If you tried to replicate it yourself on an individual basis there would be significant opportunity costs as well as far increased tracking error, as well as other things I’m probably not thinking about off the top of my head. There is a reason no one does that.

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by tempsy on Thursday January 02, 2020 @05:59PM (#21940885)
To each their own. Clearly I have a higher risk tolerance than you, and over the last decade it’s paid off handsomely.

If it’s gambling so be it. I guess I gambled and won.

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by et2o on Thursday January 02, 2020 @07:05PM (#21941440)
I was not commenting about myself. Simply correcting your mistakes. You are not a very sophisticated retail investor and it’s wrong for you to opine to others like this in the face of substantial evidence.
Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by mikestew on Thursday January 02, 2020 @05:31PM (#21940662)
Why do you think you're better than most other investors at making those investment choices?

Not OP, but the simple answer is: “because my returns over the years prove that I can.” I’ve heard this question enough times over the years that I usually just ignore such silly questions and go back to buying deep-in-the-money AAPL calls. Conversely, if it makes one feel better, continue to tell yourself individuals can’t beat the market (which is mostly true).

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by RussianCow on Thursday January 02, 2020 @06:50PM (#21941329)
> Not OP, but the simple answer is: “because my returns over the years prove that I can.”

But I could make the same argument as to why my "strategy" playing slots or roulette is good, but in reality it just means I've gotten really lucky, and I might wipe out all my earnings in the span of an hour if that luck suddenly turns. That's not to say there aren't legitimately profitable trading strategies—"you can't beat the market" is, strictly speaking, demonstrably false—but "buy stocks of companies I like" is not one of those, and is entirely equivalent to gambling.

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by mikestew on Thursday January 02, 2020 @07:53PM (#21941812)
Lucky is making a few trades that went well. When one can do it consistently for twenty years, is it still luck? Yeah, maybe it’s luck that deep-in-the-money AAPL calls (as one example) consistently make money. Maybe my occasional “disaster” strategy (buys calls for UAL, Equifax, et. al., after bad press that’ll blow over) is luck. But, man, both examples consistently work. /shrug

Anyway, I have little desire to repeat the same old arguments, nor convince anyone else. However, one might consider the differences between a slot machine (which tells you up front that you will lose money in the long term, and has no stop orders) and trading equities. Or don’t, matters little to me because I have no argument to win.

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by jldugger on Friday January 03, 2020 @02:50AM (#21944077)
> When one can do it consistently for twenty years, is it still luck?

If you take a few million people and have them invest in put or call options every year, you're still going to have some streaky winners after 20 years. Very few individual investors I have talked to have convinced me they are even tracking results well enough to back their claims of outperformance.

Re:One-quarter of the world’s pigs died in a year due to swi... by doliveira on Thursday January 02, 2020 @06:38PM (#21941221)
It's like you copied the definition of a fallacy in your comment.