Re:Going 100% Green Will Pay for Itself in Seven Years, Stud...
by ZeroGravitas on Sunday December 22, 2019 @11:49AM
(#21858181)
1) because EVs are effectively a form of grid storage, the two transitions work hand in hand. Smart chargers will absorb excess solar and wind and get discounts as a result. The UK national Grid says no new capacity will be required as long as that flexibility is taken advantage of. The utilisation of the grid will be more consistent as a result.
2) the plan for the last 20% of renewables is a bit more murky than the first 80% which most seem to agree will be straightforward and inexpensive and using the obvious solar and wind tech. I'm fairly confident that a range of solutions will present themselves, I just wouldn't want to predict exactly what mix they'll be as it'll come down to a lot of small innovations and decisions. We have answers now but I believe we'll have more, better, cheaper answers by the time we need them.
3) Rare earths aren't rare, that's not what the name means. So they're not a fundamental blocker, though they are more expensive to extract so the market for electrical storage will naturally gravitate towards more cheap and abundant materials if they're out there.
Batteries for short day-to-day storage are already entering the market and making/saving money. As renewables expand and battery prices fall they'll expand massively (see my answer about EVs). I think we'll need something with a different model for long term seasonal storage though, but the main thing will just be building lots of cheap renewables. The "problem" will be as much about all the cheap abundant energy we have in spring/autumn as about the shortages caused by winter heating, summer cooling peaks. Storing that electrical energy as ammonia/hydrogen/whatever to shift energy is going to be a big thing I think, but only so far as it's cheaper than just adding yet another solar panel. (The current big innovation is just putting more solar panels on the back of your solar panels. It only add 1% but it's cheap, so why not?)
2) the plan for the last 20% of renewables is a bit more murky than the first 80% which most seem to agree will be straightforward and inexpensive and using the obvious solar and wind tech. I'm fairly confident that a range of solutions will present themselves, I just wouldn't want to predict exactly what mix they'll be as it'll come down to a lot of small innovations and decisions. We have answers now but I believe we'll have more, better, cheaper answers by the time we need them.
3) Rare earths aren't rare, that's not what the name means. So they're not a fundamental blocker, though they are more expensive to extract so the market for electrical storage will naturally gravitate towards more cheap and abundant materials if they're out there.
Batteries for short day-to-day storage are already entering the market and making/saving money. As renewables expand and battery prices fall they'll expand massively (see my answer about EVs). I think we'll need something with a different model for long term seasonal storage though, but the main thing will just be building lots of cheap renewables. The "problem" will be as much about all the cheap abundant energy we have in spring/autumn as about the shortages caused by winter heating, summer cooling peaks. Storing that electrical energy as ammonia/hydrogen/whatever to shift energy is going to be a big thing I think, but only so far as it's cheaper than just adding yet another solar panel. (The current big innovation is just putting more solar panels on the back of your solar panels. It only add 1% but it's cheap, so why not?)