"Doing logistics" for one's own shipping, is a bit different than "trying to subsume the role of FedEx/UPS in the economy." Certainly it's "only" a matter of scale, but logistics-as-a-service (the business FedEx and UPS are in) is as large a market as the one Amazon's already in, and you'd think clear signs of them being ready to suddenly add another few hundred billion dollars to their market cap would be reflected in e.g. investment people issuing new guidance about them.

I'm not seeing how these dots are hard to connect, since "for ones own shipping" in Amazon's case seems equivalent to "for most consumer shipping".

Amazon packages supposedly account for less than 10% of packages shipped.

Amazon's shipping fleet is on par with FedEx or UPS, and yet smaller than USPS. Most consumer shipping is not done by Amazon

"Investemnt people" are reading research reports from banks (and their own analysts), not relying on mass market papers for the news. You can see it on Bloomberg.com sometimes, there will be a link to a story with more economic detail, but it will be gated by a terminal subscription.