The issue there is that you're missing the app ecosystem. Without it, why not just use a "dumb" phone?

The app ecosystem is just a matter of time, once there exists a solid foundation. We need the breakthrough device that will make it possible to get started.

Consider Linux on the desktop. For about a decade after it became popular (late 90s) ie till late 2000s, the user experience was crappy, and the app ecosystem was sparse. But they developed so well over the next ten years that in many ways Linux today is more user-friendly than Windows/OS-X.

Enough people want it, and it will happen. And as it happens, more and more people will want it... especially since popular mobile platforms provide less freedom than the desktop ones.

95% of the market does not find Linux more user-friendly than Windows/MacOS. While Linux was getting its shoelaces tied, ChromeOS showed up and put the lie to the dream that any user-controlled Linux would satisfy the market's needs.

2020 is the Year of Linux on the Desktop.

It’s not about percentages. Even with Linux users at ~1%, that’s still a large enough number of people (including folks sophisticated enough to write apps to scratch their own itches and share what they’ve built) to sustain a healthy ecosystem.

Since you refer to Chrome OS... when I say Linux I’m referring to GNU/Linux — an environment that promotes user freedom.

While it would be nice to have more people use Linux, I’m grateful for and satisfied with having something that makes my life easier (with enough critical mass participating). “Year of the Linux desktop” is simply a feel-good “nice to have” bonus, as far as I’m concerned — no market share OCD. It’s already good enough (actually fantastic!) for the people that currently care.

> 95% of the market does not find Linux more user-friendly than Windows/MacOS

Who cares? 95% of the market does not find adblock user-friendly, even though they all hate commercials and complain about them, and would clearly benefit from installing it. Most people just don't care about their own experience too much, or just ignorant. The point is that Linux desktop has had a breakthrough critical mass of usage and that has lead to availability of high quality options, so in terms of usability Linux is one of best desktop/laptop options of today already. It is not about getting everyone onboard, it's about critical mass.

Usability is not the only thing that affects adoption. I'd wager a pretty large chunk of that 95% doesn't even know what Linux is. It also doesn't matter how usable Linux is when you can't go into a store and buy a PC with it preinstalled (although that probably falls under the umbrella of "usability" for many).

That was true before, but now 95% of people wouldn't even notice that you replaced Windows with Linux. The only program they typically use is a web browser.

Most of the "app ecosystem" is pure liability. Adware, spyware, and other forms of shitware make up the majority of all the commercial app stores (Apple's, Google's, and Amazon's.)

The original iPhone shipped without an app ecosystem. Was something like a year before they had an app store.

This is correct, but at the time there weren't really any competitors with an app ecosystem. Furthermore, the original iPhone was just a better phone than the dumbphones of the day. The bar is a lot higher in 2019 than it was when the first iPhone launched.

you mean downloadable web wrappers?