One possible confounder is that having children is a pretty much irreversible step. Whereas many people who don't have children might choose to have them later. So they regret their choice less, because it's a less final choice.

Another confounder is that parents with kids know what it's like to be single. Most people without children have no idea what it's like to have kids of their own. There is a subset that knows exactly what it's like, and it's those who have lost their children. Ask them if they regret their choice. Or actually don't, because people in that situation almost never made it there by choice.

Not having children is assumed not to be a final choice. But in many cases, it is. The more I learn about correlations between genetic disorders and parent age (including the age of the father), the more I feel I have been deceived about this.

There's bias: people with children were previously people without children and can realistically regret the lifestyle that they're leaving behind, but people who've never had children lack that same capacity for regret.

And as to who is feeling overwhelmed and regretful, it's mostly women who are shoved into a thankless housewife roll and living far away from their family and friends.

I don't think that actually matters, in the "ignorance is bliss" sort of way. If you don't know what you're missing, you can't regret missing it.

If the goal is "minimizing regret" (probably it isn't, but let's say it is for now), then not having kids is a more probably way of getting there.

I endorse looking at data like this, but I think there is much better way to estimate how kids would affect your happiness: do activities that put you in extensive contact with kids, e.g., volunteer to baby sit for your friends/family, offer to tutor/advise neighborhood kids, and coach youth sports. (In addition to learning about yourself, you're helping out parents and kids when you do this, so win-win.)

Obviously these activities do not capture huge things about the 24/7 job that being a parent is, but they will probably tell you a lot more about how you relate to children than looking at population self-report data.

This might work for some people, but for me it would have been a worthless and tragically misleading signal. I got modest-at-best enjoyment from being around kids before I had one, but the past 10 years with our son has held many of the best experiences of my life. Your own kid is a very different thing than all the other kids you might spend time with.

My experience is more like pg describes, where I had a lot of trouble projecting what it would be like, and in retrospect all the rational pro/con analysis I did wasn't really getting to the core of the matter.

This is absolutely true. I love spending time with my kids and I really don't like being around most other people's kids.

Did you dislike it before you had kids?

I certainly didn't mean to suggest that you would enjoy spending time around a stranger's children as much as your own! I just mean that if you like spending time around a stranger's children more than average, or if you find babysitting less grating than average, this gives you some info that's specific to you, rather than being at the population level.

Yes, I agree with that; my experiences lead me to strongly believe that 24/7 parenting is not for me. Right now, I like kids in small doses.

The question I'm attempting to answer with data is: how likely is it that I would experience the "switch flip" that Paul describes here, and would it be enough to overcome the feelings I have about it now? If the data strongly indicated that most parents experience this kind of "switch flip", it would make me more inclined.

> but I think there is much better way to estimate how kids would affect your happiness: do activities that put you in extensive contact with kids, e.g., volunteer to baby sit for your friends/family, offer to tutor/advise neighborhood kids, and coach youth sports

I strongly disagree that this gives good evidence whether you'll enjoy having kids yourself. I never liked dealing with kids of any age; the experience with my own kids, however, is vastly different, and I really enjoy their company.

Probably many people in the middle of a marathon regret the decision. But, afterwards they've run a marathon, and those who haven't, haven't.

Another data point of interest: how many kids regret being had? I don't!

I do, Absolutely.

I've thought that in the past, but it has always been circumstantial.

At any rate, best to give people the chance to make that choice themselves.

1.4% of people globally end up dying by suicide.

When people who attempt suicide but fail are interviewed later, they almost universally claim that they don't want their life to end, they just want their suffering to end. So it doesn't necessarily follow that they regret being born.

Hey, at least they got to choose!