Intel’s Manufacturing Roadmap from 2019 to 2029

Re:Intel’s Manufacturing Roadmap from 2019 to 2029 by kllrnohj on Thursday December 12, 2019 @02:07PM (#21775119)

> I heard from dozens of engineers at the company around 2008 that there was NO WAY they would have 10nm chips around 2012 -- what the roadmap was more or less promising.

Where did they promise 10nm in 2012? This presentation from 2011 shows 10nm in 2017: https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2011/06/intel-roadmap-from-jun... and in 2011 tick-tock was still going strong.

I think you messed up your math. Tick/tock was a process shrink every 2-3 years. Using the more aggressive 2 year cadence:

    45 nm – 2007
    32 nm – 2009
    22 nm – 2011
    14 nm – 2013
    10 nm – 2015

Using a more conservative 3 year cadence:

    45 nm – 2007
    32 nm – 2010
    22 nm – 2013
    14 nm – 2016
    10 nm – 2019

And if we look at what actually happened:

    65 nm – 2005
    45 nm – 2007
    32 nm – 2010
    22 nm – 2012
    14 nm – 2014
    10 nm – 2018/2019

(Cannon Lake-U 10nm technically shipped in 2018, but I don't think anyone really considers it volume-enough to count?)

They pretty much nailed tick/tock flawlessly up until 10nm, 10 years out from when tick/tock was first announced. Expecting perfect 10 year predictions is some insane expectations for any company/person. There's no way in hell tick/tock's 2007 unveil could possibly be considered "misleading investors."

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Re:Intel’s Manufacturing Roadmap from 2019 to 2029 by ksec on Friday December 13, 2019 @07:23AM (#21780951)

>Where did they promise 10nm in 2012? This presentation from 2011 shows 10nm in 2017:

Your link shows 7nm in 2017, 10nm was for 2015.

>Tick/tock was a process shrink every 2-3 years. Using the more aggressive 2 year cadence:

You are confusing "Tick Tock" with "Process, Architecture, Optimization". Tick Tock is strictly 2 years cadence.

So yes 10nm missed by a large margin.

> 10 nm – 2018/2019

Intel has been making 10nm chip irrespective of yield, the current batch were months of stock piling chip before the rush to roll out in Xmas. In reality they barely got it out of the gate in 2019. And if you count Cannon-Lake as 2018, you might as well count TSMC 5nm in 2019.

>There's no way in hell tick/tock's 2007 unveil could possibly be considered "misleading investors."

There were not misleading in 2007, the executed their plan flawlessly, Intel had decent people back then. Pat Gelsinger left in 2009. It was still doing great up to 2012, Otellini retired, BK became CEO in 2013, still promising Tick Tock. That is the point where misleading investor began.

And I forgot to mention during All investor meetings Intel continue to reiterate 10nm is on track all the way until BK was gone. If that is not "misleading investors" I am not sure what is.

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Re:Intel’s Manufacturing Roadmap from 2019 to 2029 by my123 on Friday December 13, 2019 @02:55AM (#21779876)

Flawlessly?

Intel 14nm's beginnings were far from flawless, even if it's nowhere near Intel 10nm's issues.

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