Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't come true

Re:Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't co... by take_a_breath on Monday November 25, 2019 @06:03PM (#21633825)

How do you define “reasonable”? The bill that passed the House wouldn’t get to $15/hr until 2025. That would be a 4.6% annual increase (CAGR) going back to 2009 when the $7.25 rate was implemented. That might be a little higher than you’d like, but is it “unreasonable”? Maybe a compromise could include a longer ramp or a ramp to $13 or $14, but I haven’t heard that argument presented.

If we tracked inflation since 2009, the $7.25 would be around $8.65. Some might consider a stagnant rate as unreasonable in the face of annual inflation.

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Re:Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't co... by btilly on Monday November 25, 2019 @07:10PM (#21634342)

Lots of people say "tracked inflation", but few understand that inflation is measured relative to a basket of goods, and which basket of goods you pick really matters. Which means that the inflation rate you personally experience will depend on your lifestyle.

The result is that the inflation rate as experienced by the well-off (who consume more luxuries) is generally quite different than the inflation rate as experienced by the poor.

There is no good data that I know of over a long period of time for this. But https://www.chicagofed.org/~/media/publications/working-pape... has estimates for recent years, and it appears that inflation for low income groups is currently significantly higher than for high income groups. Mostly because price differences have been rising between stores available to low income groups versus high income groups.

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Re:Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't co... by dredmorbius on Tuesday November 26, 2019 @06:08AM (#21637245)

There's a long-standing folk wisdom that the rich pay less for things than the poor.

How well that stands up to scrutiny I don't know, though I encountered it recently on an old (probably 1960s / early 1970s) Studs Terkel interview, as a guest comment.

(Guests were Willard Moss, pioneer amateur filmmaker, & John Dubay.)

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Re:Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't co... by btilly on Tuesday November 26, 2019 @01:09PM (#21640915)

The link that I posted was based on a fine grained analysis of actual spend by actual households.

It found that, indeed, the rich pay less for the same good than the poor. And that the gap is increasing over time.

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Re:Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't co... by dredmorbius on Tuesday November 26, 2019 @02:38PM (#21641828)

Understood.

I am agreeing with you.

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Re:Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't co... by Izkata on Monday November 25, 2019 @06:20PM (#21633964)

Indeed; it's certainly possible the people making that argument are misinformed about the ramp-up, or maybe they really don't think it's slow enough. And that's assuming they're wrong, maybe we just haven't seen the effects yet because we're not yet in 2025.

But misinformed isn't bad-faith. I was pointing out that, yes, actually listening to the other side does reveal real good-faith arguments against the increase.

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Re:Job loss predictions over rising minimum wages haven't co... by take_a_breath on Monday November 25, 2019 @06:41PM (#21634154)

I see your point and it’s true and reasonable. I would just add that at some point calling something unreasonable without educating yourself (or refusing to educate yourself) on the proposal is a form of bad-faith argument.

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