1. PRC loses face.

2. ??? (Does not include war.)

3. New Chinese government takes control.

I don't think anyone knows how to do what you want. Just because a problem is important doesn't mean it has a solution.

Step 2: globally orchestrated sanctions on a fascist dictatorship

Step 2b: hopefully we avoid WWIII

That might work for a smaller country like South Africa, but China too big for that. China could probably make everything it needs itself, or learn in a decade or two. So it sounds to me like a new iron curtain, leaving both sides poorer and the people caught in the middle suffering from the separation. (And good luck fighting global warming.)

But though there's a lot of pressure to choose your side, I doubt every country will do so. If forced they might choose China?

>That might work for a smaller country like South Africa, but China too big for that. China could probably make everything it needs itself, or learn in a decade or two. So it sounds to me like a new iron curtain, leaving both sides poorer and the people caught in the middle suffering from the separation. (And good luck fighting global warming.)

The majority of the US and Soviet population was better off with the iron curtain than without in real terms. The US median hourly wage only surpassed that of 1968 in the last 3 years.

I don't think that is correct. In fact 1) China is massive with huge labor class, 2) China is heavily export driven, 3) current generation in China has been affluent.

So, even moderate global sanctions will have a massive impact with both affluent class and the labor class revolting.

However, remember, oil embargo drove Japan to WW-2, I'm sure China will react similarly unless that internal revolt happens first. Too difficult to predict.

> China could probably make everything it needs itself, or learn in a decade or two.

Even the elites want out... i'm not sure the system wouldn't eat itself before then.

Yeah, about step 2b: Note that part of the reasoning behind the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was the US's sanctions on Japan for their actions in China.

In my observation, for what it's worth, current China regime does not react well to losing face. They just dig in further. Not sure if it's a cultural artifact. We have seen that time and time again.

However, China will react to economic loss. As such pulling out of China, surely and quietly, is the best approach.