News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by stakhanov on Thursday November 21, 2019 @09:50AM (#21594531)
First: A stock can rise for reasons having zero to do with the reality of the business behind the stock, for example mispricing, availability or the lack thereof of alternative investments, inflation, currency devaluation etc. Second: To me it always leaves a very foul aftertaste when the achievements of a team are ascribed to whoever the visible front-person is. I find it hard to believe that among the other 149999 employees that Microsoft has, there aren't some that deserve to be mentioned in relation to this achievement as much or even more than Satya Nadella does.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by yodon on Thursday November 21, 2019 @10:23AM (#21594949)
Bill Gates built an amazing airplane. Steve Ballmer crashed it in the desert. Satya Nadella rallied the survivors, put it back together, and got it flying again. Yes, he absolutely deserves the credit just as Ballmer absolutely deserves the blame.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by hylaride on Thursday November 21, 2019 @10:39AM (#21595169)
Actually, Ballmer did quite well at MS. He consistently increased earnings via Windows and Office during his tenure as CEO. He was a very good businessman.

He was not, however, a product guy. Witness their failures with the Zune, mobile, early cloud computing. His problem was that he always tried to do what would be best for Microsoft and not the customer. You can get away with this if you already have an install base (windows/office), but with net new products people will look at what's best for them first. Even with developers developers developers he tried too hard to get people to use pure MS tech and made developing for the web on MS ugly if you using anything other than .NET. The result is a generation of developers on Macs and to a lesser extent linux.

Funny enough, thinking of the customer is what MS did with the xbox and it worked out well enough.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by darkmighty on Thursday November 21, 2019 @10:55AM (#21595388)
I feel that reflects quite well Steve Jobs vs Tim Cook as well. Jobs just wanted to make 'insanely great' products [for their users], with the side effect of profit, while Tim Cook is probably fixated on efficiency and Shareholder value. Apple has had record profits and performance, but most will tell it's not the same and its future is not so certain.

It seems paradoxical that trying to maximize shareholder value at all costs could have the opposite effect long term; but think of it this way: almost every company in the world is fixated on profit -- that's not a differentiator. What makes the company is amazing products that people need, even depend upon -- once you have that, it is very hard to fail.

Profit singlemindedness can definitely lead you astray, be fragile (of course, the 'user-oriented' robust strategy can be thought as ultimately also a form of profit seeking).

What Nadella seems very competent at doing is also pleasing his workforce as an additional important stakeholder.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by r00fus on Thursday November 21, 2019 @01:31PM (#21597591)
> Tim Cook is probably fixated on efficiency and Shareholder value.

Tim was the 2nd in command of Apple for years. Easy to forget this, but Apple's success in the 2000s is partially attributable to Tim as well (not to forget all the other brilliant folks at Apple).

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by corybrown on Thursday November 21, 2019 @03:22PM (#21599101)
Ballmer was the 2nd in command of MSFT for years as well, doesn't he deserve the same credit as Cook?
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by r00fus on Thursday November 21, 2019 @04:34PM (#21599909)
I'd probably agree. It might also be a Peter Principle thing where Ballmer/Cook were great at busdev/ops respectively while Gates/Jobs were more inspiring leaders.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by javajosh on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:15AM (#21595703)
Product development, especially in brand-new markets, requires a visionary with excellent taste, and the trust and respect of his team to revise with confidence.

I can imagine what happened with Zune, cloud, etc is that (an enormously successful) MS assigned senior engineers to head up potentially prestigious new projects as professional rewards, but what they should have done was acquire-hire startup founders with fire in their belly (and strong vision) about the space. Ironically anyone with that much belly fire probably would have left MS to pursue it, basically disqualifying everyone left. :)

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by rhizome on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:58AM (#21596243)
I oversimplify both the MS and Apple examples as the "builder vs. caretaker" pendulum. Though Tim Cook could hold the reins for the next 10-20 years, I have no doubt that Apple will transition to another builder in the future. Once per generation? Every other generation? The computers (plural, laptops, PCs, phones, etc.) industry is still young.

Eight years post-Jobs, it remains to be seen what Apple's evolutionary thrust turns out to be, Amelio/Sculley. For now the market expectations (user desires) would seem to support innovation and design as a business priority.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by netwanderer3 on Friday November 22, 2019 @03:16AM (#21603793)
This was right on point. The TouchBar and the problematic keyboard on those recent Macbook Pro laptops were clearly features that no Apple users ever wanted or asked for. Apple has lost some global market share as a result even though their net profit still went up. I'm afraid they are trading long term brand reputation for short term profit gains. They need to re-align product innovations with customer's best interests in mind.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by bjconlan on Friday November 22, 2019 @07:11AM (#21604847)
It was pointed out recently that in this year's product lineup apple have started responding more actively to customers (it was also noted that these are post Ive too so there might be something in that)
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by ghaff on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:47AM (#21596071)
Of course success with a vision often also includes a significant degree of luck and being in the right place at the right time. The iPod was just another MP3 player, albeit one with a certain style and design that captured lots of attention in spite of a premium price.

But it certainly wasn't ordained that Apple would parlay that into the runaway success of the iPhone.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by hylaride on Thursday November 21, 2019 @01:26PM (#21597517)
Luck and timing play into it, but so does design and usefulness. Keep in mind the state of the world when the iPod came out. College kids sharing MP3s across school networks, etc. If you used microsoft's media players, by default they often "protected" the music by converting it to WMA files that were locked. Now you're unable to share with the other kids in your dorm. The cute boy/girl who asks "what song is that" that's blaring out your open dorm room can't just receive a copy. MS tried to win the war by cozying up to the labels.

Contrast this with Apple, which (then) used MP3s and you could plug in the player and have friends copy the music; add in the premium pricing and you've also got a status symbol. "Sharing" mp3s was the modern equivalent of sharing CDs or cassettes, something the labels took way to long to figure out in their early attempts at strict online digital music.

I have no idea if Apple intentionally did this, but it mattered. MP3 players were in their infancy and when people compared, the ipod looked better.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by fragmede on Saturday November 23, 2019 @07:29PM (#21617533)
The iPod had, famously, "No wireless. Less space than a Nomad. Lame." It won for various reasons, but the iTunes music store started off with DRM, with tracks limited to 5 devices, so it didn't win for lack of DRM. (Well-executed UX and design played a huge part.)
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by ghaff on Thursday November 21, 2019 @01:41PM (#21597719)
Well pre-Zune (which was pretty mediocre; I got one for free and gave away as a gift) there were lots of other MP3 players. But I agree Apple had the premium offering especially once you got to the click wheel generation. And the music store sealed the deal.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by Nullabillity on Friday November 22, 2019 @01:37AM (#21603346)
> Jobs just wanted to make 'insanely great' products [for their users], with the side effect of profit

https://www.folklore.org/StoryView.py?story=Diagnostic_Port....

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by cgarvis on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:26AM (#21595813)
Vision Master vs Execution Master
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by kabdib on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:37AM (#21595961)
Words cannot express my contempt for the stack-ranking system that Ballmer liked. I saw perfectly good engineers being forced out because managers had to find five or ten percent of their staff to let go. Some groups deliberately hired under-performers so they could fire them and protect the "real" members of their teams.

His "everything has to be Windows" philosophy was toxic, too. (Then I realized that he didn't really care about the underlying technologies of things, and as long as you called your embedded system that had an event loop and some interrupt handlers "Windows Event Loop And Some Interrupt Handlers, Enterprise Edition" you would be politically safe).

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by mywittyname on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:03AM (#21595522)
Short term thinking can make for excellent quarterly financials, but detrimental to long-term growth in ways that aren't obvious. With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that Ballmer's Microsoft missed the boat on several important major technologies.

Imagine a world where the "iPhone" was a Microsoft product and Apple was a company left buying out other phone companies in a futile effort to catch up. That would would look very different.

IMHO, there is an alternate universe where Ballmer was never Microsoft's CEO, and instead, they had someone who could envision a future of mobile and cloud offering years before the competition did. Which means a world where the Windows Phone outsells iPhones and Androids combined, where Azure has 70%+ of the cloud computing market, where the Microsoft store is streaming original video content to customers through Xbox Live, etc. In this world, Microsoft crested the trillion dollar market cap several years ago and is well on their way to hitting the $2T mark.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by TomMarius on Sunday November 24, 2019 @01:03PM (#21622095)
Gates had those visions back in 2003 and even earlier. I'm not sure what happened.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by basch on Thursday November 21, 2019 @12:43PM (#21596957)
The current One Microsoft is Ballmer's vision executed by Nadella. Ballmer absolutely deserves some credit for putting the plan in motion that lead to Microsoft's resurgence. Nadella did NOT take over the company and lead an about face on Ballmers plan. He did extend the plan to be even more open to letting other Microsoft products cannibalize Windows.

https://www.theverge.com/2013/7/12/4516806/one-microsoft-bal...

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by OscarTheGrinch on Thursday November 21, 2019 @10:58AM (#21595439)
Windows. Vista.

Ballmer was responsible for this blight upon humanity. How many human hour / lifetimes were wasted trying and failing to get things to work on Vista?

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by vezycash on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:52AM (#21596156)
Vista was necessary. Forced people to upgrade devices. Introduced the security prompt - where everything doesn't run with admin privilege. Windows 8, 8.1 and 10 also came under Ballmer.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by ouid on Thursday November 21, 2019 @01:22PM (#21597465)
>His problem was that he always tried to do what would be best for Microsoft and not the customer

What on earth is this doublespeak? If he always did what was best for Microsoft, we would not be discussing what his problem was in managing Microsoft. That's not how "what's best for Microsoft" works.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by hylaride on Thursday November 21, 2019 @03:31PM (#21599237)
Firstly, notice the word tried. But in leads into the problem with many business people. "Best for mircosoft" would have been customers locked into a MS ecosystem where people were forced to buy the whole album to get a few songs the way the labels wanted it. That's what they tried to do, but obviously the customers didn't agree.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by ouid on Thursday November 21, 2019 @04:29PM (#21599858)
His problem, as an executive, was not "trying to do what is best for Microsoft". His problem, as an executive, was failing to do what is best for Microsoft.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by simonebrunozzi on Thursday November 21, 2019 @12:01PM (#21596282)
Among many things:

“500$? Fully subsidized? With the plan? That is the most expensive phone in the world” [0]

[0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qycUOENFIBs

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by kevstev on Friday November 22, 2019 @01:33PM (#21608463)
The Zune was a great product, IMHO better than the ipod, if for no other reason than you didn't have to deal with itunes. The hardware may not have been as sexy looking as the ipod, but the software was far superior, and it was better in all other ways- I loved that it had an FM tuner.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by Wistar on Thursday November 21, 2019 @12:30PM (#21596755)
Plus J Allard was phenomenal leader for xBox.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by saagarjha on Thursday November 21, 2019 @10:26AM (#21594990)
This is a very simplistic view, as the comment you're replying to has been trying to point out.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by manigandham on Thursday November 21, 2019 @10:31AM (#21595067)
If you’re only looking at stock price then Ballmer did exceptionally well.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by bjg on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:12AM (#21595661)
Go look at the stock history, the moment Ballmer became CEO in 2000 the price stopped growing, lulled back down into the ~20-30's and stayed there until he stepped down in 2014. He did "exceptionally well" at keeping it where it was...
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by mattrp on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:27AM (#21595839)
If you looked at historical p/e, the low for msft was the last year of ballmer. I think their p/e was 8... it was never a dog stock but an 8 is kind of like what you get if your p&g or coke. It’s not a growth stock anymore. That was about the time we started seeing the precursors to office365. So good things had started back then, but to assume a the role it has today where it’s equally a peer to Apple and google and not just relegated to be a waning player with a solid book in the enterprise (ie, sap, Oracle, etc) is quite an accomplishment. It’s as if msft finally did what gates and ballmer both failed to do: Become cool and strategic to an emerging / now dominant tech paradigm. It’s hard to give credit to one person ... credit goes to everyone there who not just went along with the pivot to cloud but took it to a whole new level.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by tracker1 on Thursday November 21, 2019 @12:35PM (#21596826)
Doesn't MS pay dividends? Stock price alone isn't the whole story.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by ThrowawayR2 on Thursday November 21, 2019 @06:44PM (#21601012)
> Go look at the stock history, the moment Ballmer became CEO in 2000 the price stopped growing

Nah, not really. 2000 was the dot-com bust (which was the start of the death spiral for a lot of formerly high-flyers, including Sun Microsystems) and 2001 was the DoJ consent decree, which brought a lot of MS's attempts to expand to a screeching halt. Ballmer, while being thoroughly mediocre in a lot of ways, deserves at least some credit for not tanking MS in that era.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by Dolores12 on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:27AM (#21595819)
Correlation does not imply causation
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by phamilton on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:34AM (#21595926)
He did very well the day he stepped down. IIRC his personal net worth jumped like $700M as Microsoft rose 9% on the news of his retirement.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by throwawaysea on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:47AM (#21596082)
Actually Ballmer did many things correctly. There was an incorrect call / arrogance in approaching the mobile phone market a certain way, and delay in building something like their hardware organization. But I don't think this means Ballmer was a complete failure. Microsoft delivered stellar results in many dimensions during Ballmer's years as well.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by statusquoantefa on Thursday November 21, 2019 @01:56PM (#21597933)
Ballmer built the amazing airplane that Bill Gates owned. Ballmer was there from close to the beginning, knew much more about business than Gates, and was intrumental.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by Jagat on Thursday November 21, 2019 @12:35PM (#21596837)
Here's what I propose we should do to figure out the causality

1. Split Microsoft into three parts, each with its own exactly equivalent market.

2. Have Satya Nadella as the CEO of one of them, Steve Ballmer as the CEO of the other, and a control group with no CEO in the third.

The lift obtained from the first may be because of Satya Nadella. It's possible that Steve Ballmer may be getting worse over time, which is why you have a third control buckets to compare against.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by m_alexgr on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:35AM (#21595935)
Another reason for a stock to rise these days is stock buybacks. Great work if you're in upper management and can compensate yourself via corporate buybacks using "free money".(with interest rates being near zero and artificially suppressed)
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by belltaco on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:06AM (#21595568)
Interesting that similar comments don't appear on the top when blaming Ballmar or some top exec for failures. Don't you find it hard to believe that things going badly are not the fault of the other 149999 employees that Microsoft has, as much or even more than Ballmer?
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by supercanuck on Friday November 22, 2019 @10:06AM (#21606156)
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by DataGata on Friday November 22, 2019 @10:21AM (#21606297)
Shouldn't stock buy backs actually lower the valuation of the company (as cash leaves)?
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by cheschire on Thursday November 21, 2019 @10:35AM (#21595118)
Take him away then. Imagine he just vanished. Took a sabbatical, didn't say where he was going, and just disappeared for a year.

What would happen? Things would function. They'd probably be fine for the first couple months, and they might even pass their first quarterly earnings without anyone noticing he's gone. If the department heads all were quiet and didn't notify the shareholders, things would seem completely fine.

But then the next quarter comes up. Money shifts around a little bit creating a small deficiency here, and a surplus over there. Department heads start to assist each other towards shared goals which may be detrimental to other departments.

Tribalism starts to take hold. Each department head is now their own top dog, and some will start to breed a culture within their areas where they believe they are absolutely more critical than other areas. Some individuals may start to actively sabotage the other departments if they feel it serves to benefit their own dept.

Without a CEO, you no longer have a company, you have a community of companies that are in direct competition with each other.

This doesn't mean the individuals within a company are unimportant. They get plenty of recognition within their own circles, but when you're talking about money, there's a reason the CEO is the focal point.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by stakhanov on Thursday November 21, 2019 @10:52AM (#21595353)
A country doesn't need a king to protect it from falling into tribalism. And a CEO is not the king of a company. The Board of Directors is the CEO's boss, and if the CEO did his job right, he is replaceable. If the Board of Directors did their jobs right, the CEO is replaceable.

What you are saying seems to me to be completely groundless in every dimension.

Also: I did not state the antithesis "Satya Nadella had nothing to do with MSFT adding $850b to their market cap". I'm just stating "It's not true that MSFT adding $850b to their market cap is attributable solely to Nadella".

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by cheschire on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:02AM (#21595516)
The king analogy feels like a straw man, and tribalism is a generic social construct used well beyond the concepts of nations. I didn't state the CEO is irreplaceable. What I'm saying isn't groundless, you just either disagree or don't share my perspective.

I like your point about the board though, and I wonder how the MSFT board specifically feels about Nadella.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by friendlybus on Thursday November 21, 2019 @12:23PM (#21596647)
You can make the same argument with a member of the board or specific engineers or designers. Johnny Ive leaving apple could leave the apple design team to tribalism like the Apple II days.

It's trivial for a CEO to issue a puff piece as a marketing tool. Steve Jobs tried to advertise himself next to Ghandi. Assigning credit is a difficult game. Studies show people over and under assign credit. The best/most realistic crediting of work to successful performance ratio ended up with the team crediting to one another something like 115% over how much work was actually done.

Debating over blame and credit is mostly a waste of time, even though people fundamentally need positive feedback for good work and negative feedback for bad work. It's mostly used politically in big corps and that's a big void I try to stay away from.

Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by ThrowawayR2 on Thursday November 21, 2019 @06:51PM (#21601078)
At least from what I hear, Microsoft was huge enough that tribalism was already a thing even with a CEO there, going as far back as the Gates era. The slowdown in growth in the '00s that shrank the reward pool and the dog-eat-dog mentality fostered by their vicious stack ranking system just made the tribalism and cronyism there worse.
Re:Satya Nadella Added $850B to Microsoft by khazhou on Thursday November 21, 2019 @11:11AM (#21595644)
No one is saying a company should operate without a leader. And also, no one is claiming that just anyone can be a good CEO. Some competence in the unique CEO skillset is required. Every CEO is expected to keep their organization from devolving into tribal chaos, for example.