Here is my strongest prediction:
AGI is only possible if the AGI is allowed to cause changes to its inputs.
Current ML needs to be grafted towards attention mechanisms and more boltzmann net / finite/infinite impulse response nets.
Could you elaborate on this point ?
Do you mean that the AGI could change the source of inputs, or change the actual content of those inputs (e.g. filtering) or both?
And why do you think this is a critical piece ?
I think I think, but might I just be using a single problem solver that gives the appearance of thinking?
Edit: Which kind of explains the failure of good-old fashioned symbolic AI as it was modelling the wrong thing.
[NB I worked in good-old-fashioned AI for a number of years]
When given a problem it has never seen before it was able to acquire knowledge of the problem and then apply that knowledge as to solve the problem. Thats the definition of learning and intelligence that can generally be applied to any problem.
> I think it's becoming clear that they are merely cognitive tools we bring to bear in the service of our higher level general intelligence machinery.
What are you on about? Cognition and intelligence are the same thing if it's capable of cognition or as you put it applying "cognitive tools" then it's capable of intelligence.
It can't be applied to any problem though. Take the example i gave elsewhere of a game where you provide the rules, and as the game progresses the rules change. There are real games that work like this, generally card games where the cards contain the rules, so as more cards come into play the rules change. Alpha Zero cannot play such games, because there isn't even a way to provide it with the rules.
>> I think it's becoming clear that they are merely cognitive tools we bring to bear in the service of our higher level general intelligence machinery. > >What are you on about? Cognition and intelligence are the same thing if it's capable of cognition or as you put it applying "cognitive tools" then it's capable of intelligence.
I'm saying that human minds apply many cognitive tools, and that Alphago is like one of those tools. It's not like the part choosing and deploying those tools, which is the really interesting and smart part of the system.
The human brain consists of a whole plethora of different cognitive mechanisms. Cognition is a broad term of a huge variety of mechanisms, none of which by themselves constitute all of intelligence. A lot of people look at Alphago and say aha, that's intelligence because it does something we do. Yes, but it only does a tiny, specialist fragment of what we do, and not even one of the most interesting parts.
The thing is those are parts of our neurology that have little to do with general intelligence. I think it's becoming clear that they are merely cognitive tools we bring to bear in the service of our higher level general intelligence machinery. In that sense high level Go and Chess players turn themselves into single-task solvers. They're better at bringing that experience and capability to bear in other domains, because they have general intelligence with which to do so, but those specialised capabilities aren't what make them a being with general intelligence. Or if specialising systems are important to general intelligence, it's as just a part of a much broader and more sophisticated set of neurological systems.