Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Global Warming

Re:Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Glo... by clomond on Monday November 04, 2019 @01:46PM (#21444919)

Discussion around if something that is in the works "may not happen" and therefore negates a particular thesis is wishful thinking. It is a real risk which should be considered, particularly if one's livelihood is dependent on the continued market dynamics of Oil & Gas.

Re: Your point on electric car adoption.

Your notion of linear adoption is not backed by history. Any kind of breakthrough technology follows adoption in the form of an 'S-Curve'. Example: http://www.foresightguide.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/Scu...

In addition to that: everyone is so focused on % of the installed fleet being electric. The key metric that is more important is "what % of passenger car kilometers driven are electric". A relatively small electric car fleet run by a ridesharing service, driving around 80% of the time can displace lots of ICE passenger car miles.

When you factor in that fleets use TCO for purchases rather than purchase price / monthly payments (like most consumers do) electric vehicles become economical sooner due to the economics of operating electric vehicles.

[ Parent | on HN ]

Re:Flood of Oil Is Coming, Complicating Efforts to Fight Glo... by thorwasdfasdf on Monday November 04, 2019 @03:40PM (#21446261)

That S-Curve your talking about is mostly for software and other technologies that have low barriers to entry. Cars are far harder than software and thus will take much longer for adoption. I mean just look at the production number projections for electric cars. It's not spiking like an S-curve. this is gonna take some time.

[ Parent | on HN ]