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Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by hn_throwaway_99 on Thursday October 31, 2019 @01:33PM (#21411393)
Lots of comments about how people are avoiding SoftBank because of their big losses, but I think the bigger aspect at play is more investors are coming to view these mega funds in general as a bad idea.

That is, when you're sitting on $100 billion dollars, you're going to spend it, even if to grifters like Adam Neumann. I think more folks are coming to the realization that there is just too much money chasing to few deals, and more money isn't the solution.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by tempsy on Thursday October 31, 2019 @01:37PM (#21411460)
It's a good time to actually be a founder right now. Too many people just want to sit around and write checks.

I hope the US creates a sovereign wealth fund. Not only would it likely make raising money more meritocratic but it would likely make a bunch of the low to mid tier VC firms go away.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by hn_throwaway_99 on Thursday October 31, 2019 @01:44PM (#21411545)
> I hope the US creates a sovereign wealth fund.

Umm, and where would that "wealth" come from?? The US national debt is over 22 trillion dollars.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by tempsy on Thursday October 31, 2019 @01:49PM (#21411601)
The NSF regularly gives grants for no equity https://seedfund.nsf.gov/

You could do something like that, but broaden the requirements to include all tech (not just science or high tech), and take equity.

The gov't would also be in a much better position to hire scouts across the country, hence democratizing access to funding.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by georgeecollins on Thursday October 31, 2019 @02:22PM (#21411962)
US households hold $113 trillion dollars in assets, so I wouldn't start passing the cup around.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/06/25/six-facts...

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by paulddraper on Thursday October 31, 2019 @04:30PM (#21413396)
> US households

> sovereign wealth fund

No one is passing about a cup.

A sovereign wealth fund is owned by the state.

A private wealth fund is owned by people and corporation; e.g. "households".

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by dragontamer on Thursday October 31, 2019 @07:19PM (#21414783)
Same fund that bought GM, Freddy Mac, (etc. etc.) and sold it off for a profit.

Now with that being said, I'm against the idea of a US-based sovereign wealth fund. But it wouldn't be unprecedented at all. EDIT: I think I can see a sovereign "strategic initiative", like something to ensure semiconductor dominance, or other forms of technological innovations. But not necessarily for the purpose of making money like a sovereign wealth fund would try to do.

USA should definitely fund research and providing infrastructure, and maybe even subsidize a company or two. But I'm not sure if the USA wants to be the owners of many companies in the market.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by tuesdayrain on Thursday October 31, 2019 @05:38PM (#21413964)
> > I hope the US creates a sovereign wealth fund.

> Umm, and where would that "wealth" come from?? The US national debt is over 22 trillion dollars.

By issuing more debt. Debt isn't always a bad thing, especially when it results in an even larger amount of revenue. That's partially why looking at the 22 trillion debt figure in a vacuum is almost meaningless. Looking at the change over time of the debt/GDP ratio will give you a much fuller picture.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by maximente on Thursday October 31, 2019 @02:07PM (#21411802)
by definition that liability is someone else's asset. it may even be yours: many pension funds seek uber-stable paper among other things to diversify risk.
Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by paulddraper on Thursday October 31, 2019 @02:22PM (#21411964)
It is someone else's asset.

That doesn't change the parent's point about the U.S. government not having money for such a fund.

(Nor, do I think should it have such a fund. If the government were to have extra money -- and it doesn't -- the government should lower its taxes.)

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by pedrocr on Thursday October 31, 2019 @02:58PM (#21412347)
> Nor, do I think should it have such a fund. If the government were to have extra money -- and it doesn't -- the government should lower its taxes.

In the case of Norway's sovereign fund (the biggest I think) there's a very good reason for it to exist. The fund inflows are the result of extracting oil from the ground so from the accounting point of view those are not revenues. They're movements in the balance sheet, converting one asset (oil) into another asset (cash). So they then put that in a fund and spend the returns, funding expenses with actual revenues. If they were to spend the capital they would be funding current expenses from assets. The equivalent in the US would be to every year sell a part of the national parks and use that money for tax breaks.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by paulddraper on Thursday October 31, 2019 @04:26PM (#21413360)
Norway is indeed a semi-socialist country financed by state-owned oil.

Regardless of whether you think that's a good or bad thing, it's certainly very far from the U.S. situation.

> those are not revenues. They're movements in the balance sheet, converting one asset (oil) into another asset (cash)'

Though it doesn't invalidate your point, I do not think it means what you think it means.

Revenue: The income generated from sale of goods or services, or any other use of capital or assets

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by pedrocr on Thursday October 31, 2019 @06:08PM (#21414262)
I'm not saying it's a good or bad thing. I'm just explaining why they've setup a sovereign fund and why reducing taxes instead doesn't always make sense. And the point is that Norway is not funded by the oil directly, they're funded by the investment returns of the oil. They don't touch the principal. I agree the situation is very different from the US. I was just pointing out the parallel wasn't the US starting to raise taxes to setup a fund, the parallel would be selling some other asset the US government already does own.

In usual accounting terms revenue has clear rules. If you sell long-term assets for the same value you had on your balance sheet already you record nothing in your income statement. You only record a gain or loss if the sale value is different from the book value, and even that goes straight to the bottom line and is not top-line revenue. Norway's oil is a long-term asset so converting it to cash is not revenue in the normal accounting sense.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by paulddraper on Thursday October 31, 2019 @06:22PM (#21414390)
> I was just pointing out the parallel wasn't the US starting to raise taxes to setup a fund, the parallel would be selling some other asset the US government already does own.

Yes that is the closest parallel.

Though in the long-term it's all relative; funding is funding. The U.S. could sell its national assets to lower tax burden. Norway could sell its national assets to lower tax burden.

Or, instead of lowering the amount taxed, they could use those assets to fund a sovereign wealth fund for government benefits.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by pedrocr on Thursday October 31, 2019 @06:36PM (#21414497)
>Or, instead of lowering the amount taxed, they could use those assets to fund a sovereign wealth fund for government benefits.

Both options are equally easy for the state to do, of course. The point is there's a sound argument for doing the fund when you have such a large asset that's otherwise useless to you, instead of returning the money as lower taxes. If you do the fund you're setting up your economy to be able to depend on the revenues from the fund forever as you are not depleting the capital. If you lower taxes you get an economy using asset sales to fund current expenses. Once those assets run out you get to deal with that somehow to go back to a balanced budget. Since most states tax incomes much more than wealth doing that would basically mean the current generation living large and passing on the problem to their children to solve. Which is effectively what is happening in a lot of the oil rich countries.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by pmorais on Thursday October 31, 2019 @04:21PM (#21413296)
The US government DOES have such a fund though. It’s called DARPA/ONR/whatever other military research wing. They all invest heavily in startups.
Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by paulddraper on Thursday October 31, 2019 @04:32PM (#21413423)
DARPA invests in startups for military technologies.

VCs invest in startups for commercial viability.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by adpirz on Thursday October 31, 2019 @01:46PM (#21411569)
In a sense, we do this already in the form of billions in all kinds of grants.
Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by gscott on Thursday October 31, 2019 @05:06PM (#21413716)
The interesting thing about the debt is that it costs 8.7% of all Federal outlays now verses 15% of federal outlays in the mid-1990s. Hence probably why Nancy Pelosi a few weeks ago agreed with Donald Trump to get rid of sequestration which was holding the line on Federal spending.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/07/24/facts-about...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markcancian/2019/08/03/goodbye-...

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by bashallah on Thursday October 31, 2019 @02:11PM (#21411841)
Ha, you ascribe national debt to the wealth status of corporations?

I hope you’re somewhere you don’t do your own taxes.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by imtringued on Thursday October 31, 2019 @03:12PM (#21412489)
>It's a good time to actually be a founder right now.

It also means that you need to spend a lot of time obtaining funds because it is not a competitive advantage anymore, it's a requirement.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by Agathos on Thursday October 31, 2019 @04:40PM (#21413499)
Between the Bayh-Dole Act, DARPA, NASA, the NSF Seed fund, and Department of Energy loans (I seem to recall the A123 loan was a political football for a while) doesn't the US already put a lot of money into technology startups?

The only difference is, the US government doesn't take equity, and thank goodness for that. Imagine a political appointee on the board of every new technology company.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by wayoutthere on Thursday October 31, 2019 @05:04PM (#21413701)
The three letter agencies do in fact place people on the boards and within the executive ranks of the companies the DoD awards contracts to.
Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by vmurthy on Thursday October 31, 2019 @06:53PM (#21414600)
> It's a good time to actually be a founder right now. Too many people just want to sit around and write checks.

I’m uncertain about this. Clearly , not having money is bad but is too much money in the hands of founders really good?

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by rossdavidh on Thursday October 31, 2019 @01:47PM (#21411577)
Mostly agree with you, but I would just like to point out that it might be that some of those founders would have done prudent and useful things if they had been given 1/10th the amount of money. Just like Softbank, they may have felt the pressure to spend that money somehow.

I don't know enough about Adam Neumann to say, and the current media environment for him is too negative for me to get an unbiased opinion. Maybe he was always going to be an unwise investment. But it is just possible that he (and Uber, and Lyft, and Peloton, and...) would have built productive, profitable companies if they had not felt they had to somehow justify being given 10x the amount of money they deserved.

Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by NotSammyHagar on Thursday October 31, 2019 @02:52PM (#21412290)
No one made him get the trademark for we and then try to sell it back to the company. That's not justifying the amount of money they had. No one made him get control through the super-powered voting shares and control of the board. No made him sell the $700 odd million he did, well before the crash to make sure he got something out of it.
Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by rossdavidh on Friday November 01, 2019 @09:27PM (#21425289)
For sure, he's culpable for his own behavior. But, I think a lot of what you mention, would not have happened if he had not been in such a "take all this money please and pretend you're spending it on technology" atmosphere. Because, people like him cannot spend do stuff like that if they're not enabled by someone, but if you're willing to sling money around there will always be somebody willing to take it and spend it.
Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by papito on Thursday October 31, 2019 @02:16PM (#21411891)
Opulence leads to complacency and bad decisions and no sense of risk. Give me 10 billion dollars on Vegas, and I will make large, dangerous bets.
Re:SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son Speaks to an Almost Empty Room a... by bobthepanda on Thursday October 31, 2019 @01:38PM (#21411469)
Now may be the overdue bite of all that expansionary QE.