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Re:The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new c... by pmoriarty on Monday October 21, 2019 @11:36AM (#21313478)
"So if not talent, what other factor causes this skewed wealth distribution? "Our simulation clearly shows that such a factor is just pure luck," say Pluchino and co.

"The team shows this by ranking individuals according to the number of lucky and unlucky events they experience throughout their 40-year careers. "It is evident that the most successful individuals are also the luckiest ones," they say. "And the less successful individuals are also the unluckiest ones."

This article kind of assumes everyone wants to be rich, or makes that a primary goal in their life. That's not really the case.

Some people are more career-driven, more ambitious, more interested in making money. Others have various psychological issues that prevent them from working effectively or sometimes getting or keeping a job at all. Is that just bad luck?

I grew up despising money and looking down on people who chased after money. I didn't want to be that guy. I did reluctantly get work, but I never tried to climb the corporate ladder, refused offers of promotion to management, took many years off work and lived off my savings instead, and I've burnt out many times, my career suffered as a result. Is that just bad luck?

I had a chance to work at Google early on, pre-IPO, but I decided not to. I worked at a small financial company for a year, was offered a big promotion and turned it down and quit instead, because I was burnt out and just not interested in that job. That company wound up becoming one of the largest financial companies in the world.

Being depressed much of my life, I didn't really care to plan for or save for my long term future, because I thought I wouldn't have one. This has become a self-fulfiling prophecy in some sense, though not how I expected. I didn't think I'd live, but I did live, just not with as much financial security had I pursued money money more and saved for the long-term.

In many ways I've been lucky. I grew up mostly in safe suburbs when I was young. I went to some great schools, some of the best in the country, but also dropped out of those. I'm not ambitious. I get bored easily. I like to follow my own interests rather do boring work other people tell me to do. I suffer from depression and just generally don't feel I fit well in this world, but also consider that I'm not rich (actually close to becoming homeless at this point) due in large measure to my own choices rather than pure luck.

Now, you could argue that we really have no free will. If that's so, then yes, where you are could be said to be "just chance". But to the degree we could make good or bad choices, we bear some responsibility for where we end up, though clearly luck plays some role, and it's good to be in the right place at the right time, doing the right thing.

Re:The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new c... by throwaway13372 on Monday October 21, 2019 @11:48AM (#21313611)
Still the comment about citing one unique sample to overthrow a general assessment from much larger sample size...

You seem to be blindly lucky and do not really appreciate that...

Re:The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new c... by pmoriarty on Monday October 21, 2019 @11:52AM (#21313661)
My entire point is that you can be lucky (and smart, if I can flatter myself so) but not rich.

It can take more than intelligence and luck, it could take a desire and a choice to make money a big priority in your life, which it rarely was for me.

If Bill Gates had said "Fuck Microsoft, I don't want to do this shit anymore" and quit early on in his career, (which, if he had free will, he could have done at any point) then he probably wouldn't have wound up the richest person in the world, no matter how lucky he was.

He chose to do what he did (didn't he?), and that (in large part) was what made him unimaginably rich.

Re:The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new c... by newfangle on Monday October 21, 2019 @12:53PM (#21314452)
This article isnt referencing a "general assesment", its based on a computer model that tried to simulate human behavior.

Its clear that you need to be lucky to become a billionaire but i think a more interesting question is how much luck is involved in becoming a multi millionaire.

Re:The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new c... by michaelmrose on Monday October 21, 2019 @12:07PM (#21313881)
If you were as unmotivated as described and also born poor instead of well off you would have found yourself homeless instead of living off your savings when you burnt out and instead of posting on hn you would probably be rotting in the ground.
Re:The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new c... by pmoriarty on Monday October 21, 2019 @12:09PM (#21313916)
Absolutely. I'm not saying that luck plays no role. It clearly does. But it's not, as the article claims, "just luck" (unless you don't believe in free will, in which case it is).

Parenthetically, I was born poor. My family had very little money when I was born, and what little they had they left behind in the old country when we immigrated to America. So I was poor when I was really young, and middle class by the time I left high school, thanks to the hard work (and maybe luck) of my parents.

But your point is taken... if I was really poor when it came time to work and I refused to do so, then I'd feel the lash of the economic whip, as I'm just about to do so now as I've burnt through my savings yet again....

Re:The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new c... by agota on Monday October 21, 2019 @01:08PM (#21314650)
Who you are is a result of genetics and environment which can be referred to as "luck" since presumably you didn't choose to be born to your parents.

So, while I think that personal responsibility is a valuable perspective, I do think that ultimately what you describe boils down to "luck".

Re:The most successful people are just the luckiest, a new c... by program_whiz on Monday October 21, 2019 @12:55PM (#21314480)
I think the explanation is that you can't guarantee success without luck, but you can guarantee failure e.g. its random how long you'll live, but you can ensure your death at any time. Its random whether your next business goes exponential, but you can walk away and it implodes at any time. Its random whether you stumble on the "big kill" and the tribe feasts, but you can guarantee failure by refusing the hunt.