DSL modems are a similar technology leap - they used to contain high end FPGA's, DSP chips, and high speed analogue to digital converters, and they'd cost hundreds of dollars.

Now a cheap DSL modem is $10, and it's all a single SoC.

Phased array satellite modems will follow the same price curve.

I hope that ends up happening, it will be a bigger innovation than all these constellations!!

I don't think it will happen in the next 3 years though. I think that most of the manufacturers are focusing on the high-end market, and first terminals will be in the thousands of dolars.

I think it will happen, because phased array systems are being developed for 5G, next-gen WiFi, etc. Lots of players in the ASIC design game are designing similar hardware, and in the volumes spacex presumably wants to order, I think they'd be totally happy to spin a chip putting together a few hundred phase shifters and amplifiers in-front of a regular DSL modem SoC.