Umm.. Are those really Google's only choices?
Option #1, however, could get Google in trouble for anticompetitive behaviour.
In their privacy policies – which concern 'personal information' with far more legal sensitivity than aggregate ad/transactional data – Google pretty much grants themselves carte blanche to "combine the information you submit under your account with information from other Google services or third parties in order to provide you with a better experience and to improve the quality of our services" and/or "Provide, maintain, protect, and improve our services (including advertising services) and develop new services".
Google routinely uses it's position as market maker in search and Internet advertising to gain an advantage on other participants on the Internet.
Take AdWords. Many smart people, including many people on HN, think that AdWords is an auction. AdWords is not an auction. AdWords has a price discovery strategy which is partially auction-like, but the actual ad displayed will be a) from whomever Google darn pleases at b) whatever price Google darn pleases. (In addition to being best at the world at processing large amounts of information, Google isn't too shabby at PR, so they call this Quality Score and tell people that the revenue maximization strategy for the world's largest advertising firm is in people's best interest... and people believe them.)
In addition to displaying explicit preferences for particular businesses and for/against particular business models, Google uses large amounts of proprietary black magic to determine minimum pricing. For example, keywords in a field known to be awash in money with no competition will not be priced at the systemwide minimum price, but will rather be priced much higher. The exact level is, again, wherever Google darn well pleases. They have teams of very smart people working on revenue maximization.
I love AdWords. It's the best idea any corporation has come up with in the last twenty years, and is largely responsible for me being at my kitchen table right now instead of being miserable in my cubicle. But let's not kid ourselves: Google is not a one-off gentle giant surrounded by 499 for-profit corporations on the Fortune 500.
(Google is an affiliate: they do cost-per-action advertising on behalf of customers. Google is a search arbitrageur: they have a large source of searches which they can acquire cheaply, a large number of pages with content which is not quite responsive to user needs, and advertisers who are willing to pay for targeted traffic. The difference between Google and other search arbitrageurs is that typically the arbitrageur outsources the search engine and owns the content, where google owns the search engine and outsources the content to its AdSense partners.)
Now Google can either: 1. Ban Groupon from advertising on AdWords 2. Use the CTR and conversion data from Groupon's campaigns to learn exactly how to target ads for Google Offers.
Since they have massive amounts of data from Groupon's campaigns, it's definitely feasible for them to capture lots of their traffic. But will they really run Google Offers and Groupon ads next to each other?