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A comment on Fracking boom tied to methane spike in Earth’s atmosphere. Parent comment

Re:Fracking boom tied to methane spike in Earth’s atmosphere by pdonis on Sunday October 13, 2019 @03:49PM (#21242486)
All of these claims about the consequences of various levels of warming, including this "1.5 C is the limit" claim, are based on an assumption of predictive power, not just in climate science but in economics and sociology, which simply does not exist. Nobody knows how to predict what the consequences will be, particularly when you take into account that people will change the way various things are done in order to adapt to change. Indeed, that is happening now (and has always been happening throughout the history of the human race). These are the same people that predicted there would be worldwide famines in the 1980s and that oil and mineral prices would skyrocket by 2000. Their only predictive track record is of entirely wrong predictions. There is no reason to believe them this time.
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Re:Fracking boom tied to methane spike in Earth’s atmosphere by TeMPOraL on Sunday October 13, 2019 @04:42PM (#21242861)
> These are the same people that predicted there would be worldwide famines in the 1980s and that oil and mineral prices would skyrocket by 2000. Their only predictive track record is of entirely wrong predictions. There is no reason to believe them this time.

Predictions not panning out because they were mitigated in time doesn't mean the predictions were wrong.

Also FWIW, oil prices did skyrocket in 2000s.

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Re:Fracking boom tied to methane spike in Earth’s atmosphere by pdonis on Sunday October 13, 2019 @05:50PM (#21243354)
> Predictions not panning out because they were mitigated in time doesn't mean the predictions were wrong.

They weren't "mitigated". Nobody took action based on those predictions in order to keep them from coming true. People just continued to improve technology and continued to have fewer children as their standard of living rose--trends that were just as observable when the predictions were made as the trends that the predictions were based on.

> oil prices did skyrocket in 2000s

Sort of, but then they came back down again:

https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha...

And the prediction I was referring to, more precisely, was that oil prices would skyrocket by 2000 and then would never come back down again but continue to rise.

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Re:Fracking boom tied to methane spike in Earth’s atmosphere by JoeSmithson on Sunday October 13, 2019 @04:16PM (#21242672)
> These are the same people that predicted there would be worldwide famines in the 1980s and that oil and mineral prices would skyrocket by 2000. Their only predictive track record is of entirely wrong predictions. There is no reason to believe them this time.

In what way are these "the same people"? Members of the IPCC previously made predictions about mineral prices?

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