What playing their hand too early means is that they’ve hurt themselves with dumb moves. What good is having influence if China use it stupidly, makes everyone pissed off, and everyone closes their doors to China? Xi and the CCP have hurt China here.

Soft influence. Release a couple more international films. Allow at least one major American company unfettered access to the Chinese market (better if it were an underdog American company whose brand is an up and coming younger hip version of some big corporate player) to demonstrate the possibilities inherent in playing ball w/ China. Continue to advertise world leadership in AI research and invite cooperation and share advancements with neighboring countries. Continue and expand their space program with international cooperation.

In another 10 years they’d take the mantel of world superpower from the US.

But I guess it’s true of totalitarian government as it is with most evil: it contains the seeds of its own destruction

Agreed, largely. At the rate we're going, that mantle will be theirs for the taking before long.

They are really shooting themselves in the foot over HK

For the Communist Party, it's not about HK, at least not exclusively. It's about everybody else in their sphere of influence, including Taiwan, who will be emboldened if HK prevails.

HK is basically an exercise in calling Xi's bluff. Everyone will now see his cards, whatever they are. The residents of HK have judged that now is the time to do that, for better or worse, and they deserve our support.