There is always a non zero probability of mankind extinction but within hundreds of years it should be fairly, fairly low

Human civilization can die much easier than mankind. Civilizations have collapsed multiple times before. Back then the effects were localized because civilizations were localized. In today's globalized world the effects could be much more serious.

> Civilizations have collapsed multiple times before

Yeah but it's not like the variables at work before are the same at work today. With the current set of variables, even LESS likely than ever than what you call the "current civilization" would collapse completely, because it's massively decentralized in terms of knowledge.

That is of course true, but I think that the number of variables is so huge that nobody really knows why civilizations collapse. For example, while as you say knowledge is more distributed today, a lot fewer people know how to life self-sufficiently and knowledge is a lot more specialized that it used to be the cause. Proverbially nobody knows how to make a pencil from scratch.

I've noticed that assumption is heavily baked in everywhere you look. I'll bet after the hundreds of thousands of years we have made it so far, humanity, in one form or another, will continue to persist.

I didn’t say “humanity.” I said “human civilization.” I do think there’s hope for humanity, but I’m a lot more bearish about civilization.

If human civilization collapses and humans go back to hunter-gatherer subsistence, it means death to about 95-97% of humans.

Not precisely an extinction, but still not a lot of hope.