News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by seanmcdirmid on Tuesday September 24, 2019 @06:13PM (#21065179)
The peak of the peak oil scare was 40 years ago (given that the peak was scheduled for the mid 70s), not 20. This is actually the first time I’ve heard of there being another scare 20 years ago.

For example, Mad Max in 1979 comes from that sentiment.

Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by oil-crisis on Tuesday September 24, 2019 @07:37PM (#21065896)
I think the Carter administration's incident in the late 1970's is more accurately characterized as an "oil crisis" because there were real shortages, serious enough to alter trends in car purchasing habits, warranting economy automobile redesigns (smaller, lighter, more efficient, no more muscle cars). Gas stations actually ran out of gas, resulting in hours long waits on miles long lines, and theft by siphoning forcing the introduction of keyed locks on gas tanks.

These were real problems people faced, although it wasn't exactly a full panic.

Oil "scares" on the other hand were threats that raised eyebrows, and caused dramatic price fluctuations in anticipation potential problems. Each "scare" really only hit the wallet and bank account, without altering real behavior.

In that sense, yes, there were a few other "scares" between Jimmy Carter and present day. Each grouping came periodically, maybe every ten years. Almost all of them were tied to Iraq.

The first was the invasion of Kuwait in 1991. I think gas prices blew past $2/gallon for the first time.

The second was 9/11, and $4/gallon gas starting late 2001. This one was rough. Pretty much everyone I knew was groaning about gas prices, and with Iraq invasion rumors people started thinking $5 would break them.

The 2003 Iraq invasion actually resulted in a downward trend (due to international theft or spoils), but it's ever been below $2 again, and it's been back up to $4 at the pump, here and there, depending on geographic region and state taxes, here and there.

With the 2008 meltdown, oil prices weren't displaying any gouging, and there wasn't much of a scare at the 2001 decade mark, because as others have mentioned, fracking has buoyed domestic production.

Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by seanmcdirmid on Tuesday September 24, 2019 @10:57PM (#21067159)
Petrol is still cheap when inflation is considered (consider $1 in 1984 is $2.40 in 2018). Also, the first oil shock occurred during Nixon (with a second one under Carter).
Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by bjourne on Wednesday September 25, 2019 @12:38PM (#21072435)
Peak oil featured prominently in Al Bartlett's talk about exponential growth. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O133ppiVnWY Still a good talk, but it seems he was wrong about peak oil, just like Malthus was wrong about population growth.
Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by BlueTemplar on Wednesday September 25, 2019 @03:05PM (#21074120)
How exactly was Malthus wrong about population growth ?
Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by BlueTemplar on Tuesday September 24, 2019 @08:58PM (#21066484)
You're confusing peak USA (conventional) oil - which happened circa 1970, with the peak world (conventional) oil, which happened circa 2010 . Next stop : peak world conventional+unconventional oil circa 2020 ?
Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by Robotbeat on Tuesday September 24, 2019 @10:25PM (#21066979)
Don't get your hopes up. There's trillions of barrels of oil resource in the Green River formation (Wyoming, etc)--more than the reserves of the rest of the world combined. It's very unconventional (oil shale/kerogen), but I've seen some estimates that say it's no more expensive to extract than tar sands oil (once you start developing the resource).

We're going to have to do this the hard way, as the other poster mentioned. Decide to keep it in the ground.

Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by BlueTemplar on Wednesday September 25, 2019 @02:17AM (#21068175)
If it's "no more expensive to extract" (and process, transport, refine...), why hasn't anyone bothered yet ?
Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by Robotbeat on Wednesday September 25, 2019 @10:55AM (#21071358)
Because there's a large capital (and learning curve) upstart requirement. It's almost like you missed this: "(once you start developing the resource)"

Additionally, tar sands are very marginal economically. Arguably not profitable right now. Fracking tight oil is cheaper, and even that is not being pursued as vigorously as it was when oil prices were higher.

And there are environmental regulations that get in the way of oil shale/kerogen extraction. And for good reason.

Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by BlueTemplar on Wednesday September 25, 2019 @01:37PM (#21073090)
That was true too for Oil Sands and Tight Oil. (Heck, any oil play needs capex, starting from the first drilled ones!) And yet we are... P.S.: But we basically seem to agree, so this is nitpicking on my part...
Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by seanmcdirmid on Tuesday September 24, 2019 @10:53PM (#21067139)
Global peak was scheduled for the mid 70s in the original 1956 paper. USA peak was set for 1970, which actually happened even if it was a false peak.
Re:The Saudis Are Lying About Their Oil Production? by BlueTemplar on Wednesday September 25, 2019 @02:18AM (#21068181)
Have we read the same paper ? It was clearly forecasted for the turn of the century...