Somehow petrol and fuel oil [in the UK] doesn't seem to have fallen barely at all since 2011-2015?

[Actually petrol is down about ~7%, 140p->130p per litre https://www.racfoundation.org/data/uk-pump-prices-over-time; and fuel-oil about ~10%, £300->270 per 500 litres https://www.cheapestoil.co.uk/articles/trend. But, compare that to https://www.macrotrends.net/2480/brent-crude-oil-prices-10-y... showing 2012 prices at 4 times 2015 prices.]

I think when people are thinking of "oil prices", as consumers they're converting that to "petrol prices" (and fuel oil if they use that) and thinking "if petrol/heating prices rise >50% that's going to be very hard".

Petrol prices only falling by four-twelths when the crude price fell by nine-twelths suggests that petrol costs a lot on top of the crude price and that a 50% crude increase might lead to, say a >100% petrol price increase.

UK petrol prices are ~65% tax, with the bulk of that being the fixed fuel duty. Prices in the US swing much more dramatically with oil prices.

There are considerable refining costs and transport costs from the refinery to your tank. Especially so because in the UK I don't believe you have considerable refining industry so I assume much of it is imported and then FOREX comes into play. Fuel taxes, at least in the US, are constant per volume and not relative to price and in California make up currently about 15% of the cost.

On top of all of those factors I would only guess that at high prices profit margins fell by ratio which was recovered (or just increased) when prices fell.

UK consumption is 1.7 mbd while domestic refining capacity is 1.2 mbd.

> Petrol prices only falling by four-twelths when the crude price fell by nine-twelths suggests that petrol costs a lot on top of the crude price and that a 50% crude increase might lead to, say a >100% petrol price increase

Why? If petrol price is fairly inelastic to crude price (for reasons siblings note) that means it would increase a little, not a lot.

The previous decade the prices went from 20$ to 160$, culminating with the start of the Great Recession... https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-oil-price-history-cha...