Re:Economists don’t understand much about the macroeconomy
by bryanlarsen on Thursday September 19, 2019 @09:15AM
(#21015823)
> Which is why people do not trust the weather men and neither should they trust economists.
People who's livelihood depend on the weather (farmers) do trust weathermen. They just know the limitations.
1: any forecast more than three days out cannot be counted on. (If you're close to mountains or other similarly confounding factor, that 3 day number is a lot smaller)
2: An 80% forecast of rain doesn't mean that it will rain in one specific place, but that it will rain in a good portion of the forecast area.
The same thing applies to economists. Some of their predictions are very accurate, but much are wishes and guesses. But due to human nature we primarily remember the times their guesses were wrong.
People who's livelihood depend on the weather (farmers) do trust weathermen. They just know the limitations.
1: any forecast more than three days out cannot be counted on. (If you're close to mountains or other similarly confounding factor, that 3 day number is a lot smaller)
2: An 80% forecast of rain doesn't mean that it will rain in one specific place, but that it will rain in a good portion of the forecast area.
The same thing applies to economists. Some of their predictions are very accurate, but much are wishes and guesses. But due to human nature we primarily remember the times their guesses were wrong.