Re:Statisticians want to abandon science’s standard measure ...
by btilly on Friday September 06, 2019 @03:10PM
(#20898808)
No, that is EXACTLY how probability theory works.
The probability of event A given that we observed B is the probability of A and B happening divided by the probability that B happened. Mighta, coulda, shoulda but didn't doesn't enter into it and can't affect the result. The fact that frequentist statistics does care and shouldn't is one of the major criticisms that Bayesians offer.
If you think you understand statistics and don't understand this fact, then you do not understand statistics as well as you think you do. But you can be pardoned. Most statistics classes are too busy cramming statistical tests into student's heads to bother them with bothersome facts about where the cracks in the foundations are.
The probability of event A given that we observed B is the probability of A and B happening divided by the probability that B happened. Mighta, coulda, shoulda but didn't doesn't enter into it and can't affect the result. The fact that frequentist statistics does care and shouldn't is one of the major criticisms that Bayesians offer.
If you think you understand statistics and don't understand this fact, then you do not understand statistics as well as you think you do. But you can be pardoned. Most statistics classes are too busy cramming statistical tests into student's heads to bother them with bothersome facts about where the cracks in the foundations are.