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Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by creaghpatr on Sunday August 18, 2019 @04:44PM (#20732694)
Political opposition leaked a scare document? Welcome to politics.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by vesinisa on Sunday August 18, 2019 @04:56PM (#20732793)
No, this document was drafted by Boris Johnson's pro-Brexit government.

E: Apparently it was his predecessor, but it's nevertheless not drafted by Labour.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by creaghpatr on Sunday August 18, 2019 @04:58PM (#20732803)
It’s right there in the article:

>The Financial Times quoted government insiders who rebutted the document, saying it is not a realistic scenario for a no-deal Brexit and pointing out that it was written under the leadership of Johnson's predecessor, Theresa May, and does not reflect the preparations spearheaded by Johnson that are now underway.

>”This document is from when ministers were blocking what needed to be done to get ready to leave and the funds were not available. It has been deliberately leaked by a former minister in an attempt to influence discussions with EU leaders," a source told the paper.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by jimnotgym on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:20PM (#20732958)
Still not quite right. The document was prepared by the civil service while Teresa May was Prime Minister. Teresa May is in the same party as Boris, not the opposition as you claim. Boris' team are claiming, not that this document is wrong, but that it is an out of date analysis, and that Boris has turned things around since he took office on 24th July. Perhaps he really is that good that he has done in 3 weeks what May couldn't do in 3 years (some of which time he was a senior cabinet member himself).

Paint it on the side of a bus, with 350 million other lies.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by bertil on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:12PM (#20732914)
Whether the previous government (same party, same Parliament, same mandate, same objective) is “the opposition” is debatable.

It’s not Labour. It’s not Remainers. Both governments want a deal with the EU. It’s unclear if the minister who leaked that document voted for the existing Deal (several ministers voted against their own government).

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by DanBC on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:06PM (#20732865)
Your use of the word "opposition" is confusing because in the UK that would mean the party not in power, it wouldn't mean people in the same party.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by cybersnowflake on Sunday August 18, 2019 @06:11PM (#20733256)
Theresa May is the greatest Brexit champion mankind has ever known according to HN.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by bitL on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:12PM (#20732915)
It's probably the same as when US army evaluates catastrophic scenario that Canada, Mexico or Belize invade USA (or the other way round). There are probably 10 similar scenarios ranging from Brexit net-positive and rebirth of UK empire dominating inept EU down to loss of Scotland/North Ireland and economic collapse, which is what government should do anyway. I guess there's nothing else to write about in the newspapers during summer...
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by jimnotgym on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:22PM (#20732970)
According to the report itself this is not the worst case scenario, it is the realistic one.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by privateSFacct on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:14PM (#20732928)
Totally false. And using fear in politics is nothing new. The US now has tariffs on Canada because of the "risk" Canada poses to national security.

The idea that the UK crumbles (the document has things like cancer patients dying, folks with diabetes dying - its just an incredible list) seems far fetched. The UK operated prior to the EU without all these disasters.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by alkonaut on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:24PM (#20732986)
> The UK operated prior to the EU without all these disasters.

This is true. But what’s discussed is how difficult it is to untangle 40 years of ever tighter integration. Decades ago things weren’t made in british factories using parts delivered just in time to be assembled, from multiple European supplier factories. No one is arguing that it’s impossible for Britain to function outside the EU. But “it worked before” isn’t an argument that leaving won’t be a disaster.

Taking the same argument ad absurdum: Britain used to operate without electricity and cars. Now there is a hundred years of electricity and cars integrated into every corner of British society so if cars and electricity was suddenly removed, it would take a long time for Britain to adapt to the new old system of candles and horses. It would work (it has operated that way before) but it would be a disaster for quite some time. An initial shortage of horses and candles wouldn’t be the only problem.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by jashmatthews on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:31PM (#20733046)
> folks with diabetes dying

Back in 1975 things were very different. We didn't have recombinant insulin and diabetics died much more often.

It's not like we can flip a switch and go back to 1975, but keeping everything from 2019 running.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by pmlnr on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:24PM (#20732985)
Go and talk to your elders about pre 1970 UK. I did. Regular 3 day power outages were common as a start.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by renaudg on Sunday August 18, 2019 @06:20PM (#20733328)
This is like saying it's easy to refactor a huge codebase to strip a critical software component from it overnight, because 40 years ago you used to have a standalone version that didn't require it.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by privateSFacct on Monday August 19, 2019 @10:40PM (#20743414)
Actually - if I can get totally illegal drugs in the UK, I suspect that if market forces work the same way for legal drugs as they do for illegal, folks who face death without their drugs will find a way to get supply of those drugs.

And it will be totally appalling if the EU to prove a point blocks shipments of those drugs.

This is a chance for the US perhaps to get in with some timely shipments using the US military or other govt resources. Could save lots of UK lives while the EU let's their neighbors die.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by renaudg on Thursday August 22, 2019 @05:46PM (#20772679)
It sounds like you're either trolling or deeply confused about what's going on.

The EU is not threatening to block shipments of anything nor to "let their neighbors die". It's the UK government that seems intent on imposing economic sanctions unto itself by leaving the single market.

Actually, the closest thing to suggesting to let neighbors die was these outrageous comments by UK Home Secretary Priti Patel a few weeks ago (https://www.joe.ie/news/british-politician-says-uk-threaten-...), suggesting to cause food shortages in Ireland in order to pressure them to drop the backstop. To anyone who knows history between the 2 countries (actual famine in Ireland caused by Britain centuries ago), this is abhorrent.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by wetpaws on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:08PM (#20732876)
Does it really matter who leaked them if content is true?
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by bertil on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:17PM (#20732941)
You can accuse a leak to be partial, non-representative, timed to harm a party, etc.: that’s what people criticised when Russian secret services leaked emails from the presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton. “True” isn’t enough of a criterion for political coverage: “representative”, “clear”, “informing the voting public” at better objectives.

In this case, it’s an internal document that is proving that the government is not candid about a threat that they are waving.

If (like people who support Boris Johnson) you think that a credible threat of leaving without a Deal helps negotiate against the European Union, that leak can seem political.

If (like people who oppose Boris Johnson) you think that a leaving without a Deal is irresponsible, having official confirmation of that fact is validating.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by repolfx on Monday August 19, 2019 @08:41AM (#20737184)
Yes it does, because these are predictions about future events and thus cannot (yet) be true or not true.

The civil service has previously published reports like this. They turned out to be totally wrong. There's a serious and important element of cry wolf here, especially because the previous cabinet that the report was written for were working against leaving. Lots of stuff coming out in recent weeks about how ministers were saying they were preparing and ready to leave without a deal but actually blocking attempts to prepare and telling foreign leaders they'd never leave.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by te_chris on Sunday August 18, 2019 @04:46PM (#20732711)
It’s a govt risk assessment document, not just “politics”. Assuming you’re a brexiteer....what exactly is the positive case for brexit now? Because no one I can hear is making it, merely saying it has to happen, like a visit to one’s in laws that destroys the economy and fractures society.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by mikedilger on Sunday August 18, 2019 @04:55PM (#20732785)
The case for Brexit that I've heard from the beginning has not changed, so if you honestly haven't heard it, it goes something like this: the primary goal is to retain sovereignty while Britain still can; to arrest the slow but inexorable yielding of power to unelected officials of the E.U.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by skummetmaelk on Sunday August 18, 2019 @04:58PM (#20732806)
Can you explain which unelected officials you are talking about specifically. How does the number of unelected officials differ from the national government of the UK?

In both cases there is a parliament where you vote for someone to represent your area. You cannot vote for anyone outside your area. In the EU your area is a country and in the UK your area is a smaller part of the country. If you live in Scotland, northen Ireland or Wales you are also governed by a different "country" with unelected officials.

Then you have the truly unelected members of government. Advisors and ministry beaurocrats and administrators.

I simply cannot wrap my head around how people can keep regurgitating this crap. All western democracies are full of "unelected" officials. The EU is not some special unelected body. You have your vote and you vote for a representative to represent your constituency. Stop spreading this nonsense.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by brmgb on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:26PM (#20733003)
Wanting to retain local sovereignty rather than be part of a larger block seems to me like a legitimate reason to be in favour of Brexit regardless of the democratic legitimity of the EU.

It's not one I agree with but it certainly seems respectable to me.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by 08-15 on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:48PM (#20733140)
> which unelected officials

The European Commission. Remember, the Commission gets to propose legislation, the Parliament (which you elect) doesn't.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by renaudg on Sunday August 18, 2019 @06:08PM (#20733238)
This is the executive arm. Commissioners are appointed by each member state's governement. This is no less democratic than the way UK cabinet ministers are appointed.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by 08-15 on Sunday August 18, 2019 @06:26PM (#20733349)
Maybe, maybe not. But the UK parliament gets to propose legislation, doesn't it? The German Bundestag sure does.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by pknight on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:26PM (#20733008)
The sovereignty argument for Brexit in practice is counterintuitive, it often implies it enhances ones choices and power over things.

But being an EU member state doesn't give away sovereignty, it's a way of expressing your sovereignty; it's pooling it with others in order to do things you can't do on your own. A leaving member state has a different menu of choices it can make, but because it's position is weaker, the choices are at best narrowed down, or at worst set by other parties.

In the case of the UK, it can choose between favouring a US market over a EU market, but each choice imposes restrictions set entirely by others. The EU will insist on a higher bar of conduct to pass, as part of its level playing field approach. The US will insist on limiting the UK's ability to raise the bar where it sees fit, so that US companies can more readily exploit the UK market, unencumbered by impediments it finds today in the form of things like food safety standards.

And you have to pick one or the other. Today the UK was able to influence the environment that most affected it, because it was a member of the EU. Tomorrow larger parties are shaping what the UK can choose from, with little say in it for British voters. This is a form of sovereignty shrinkage.

The idea that Brexit returns sovereignty is misleading and I suspect a lot of people will be disappointed when they find out in practice what it means.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by gumby on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:09PM (#20732886)
> slow but inexorable yielding of power to unelected officials of the E.U.

...despite the fact that no EU rules can go into force in any EU state without that state passing a law to make it happen within its borders.

And despite the rather pointless European Parliament, the real decisions are made by the elected heads of member state governments, when they meet as the European Council.

So after Brexit the new boss will precisely be identical to the old boss.

But sure, why not believe that the 350 mil a week is being stolen by a bunch of offshore bureaucrats.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by martin8412 on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:52PM (#20733166)
It is not quite true. Certain things can indeed be implemented without a local law being passed in parliament. But that is very rarely used, and when used it is for actual important stuff that a lot of people would agree is a good thing.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by repolfx on Monday August 19, 2019 @08:46AM (#20737216)
None of this is true! All EU law is automatically implemented in the UK, parliament cannot stop it, and most things are no longer vetoable at the Council level either. What little veto power remains is under attack by the EU itself which wants to move to qualified majority for everything, and that assumes votes actually matter in the EU, when there's lots of evidence that they don't.

The reality is the goal of the EU is to replace national governments. That replacement provides an illusion of democracy but without actually being democratic. Just go read the various statements of the people who control the European apparatus, or witness how the people's primary concerns as measured by opinion polls are simply ignored in Brussels (which does the opposite in fact).

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by arethuza on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:05PM (#20732856)
I seem to remember that one of the pro-Brexit arguments was to "retain sovereignty" for parliament which, rather ironically, doesn't seem very keen on the idea at all.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by pjc50 on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:34PM (#20733065)
The "unelected" line is moronic in a country with an unelected head of state and the only unelected legislative chamber in a "democratic" country.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by jimnotgym on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:42PM (#20733107)
Something we will have to deal with before the next generation rejoins the EU. Having an unelected chamber would disqualify us from joining!
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by thefinalboss on Sunday August 18, 2019 @04:58PM (#20732810)
but eveyrone elected those unelected officials in the European elections a few months ago.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by mikedilger on Sunday August 18, 2019 @06:00PM (#20733205)
I was regurgitating the positive case for Brexit that I've heard, not making a case myself, because the previous commenter said he "had not heard" a positive case that is still relevant today (a sovereignty case is still relevent today). I wasn't making the case myself. I'm sorry 'unelected officials' triggered everybody, but that is what they say.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by martin8412 on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:13PM (#20732920)
The officials in the EU are just as elected as the officials of the UK. They voted for someone to vote for them. Similar to multiple other countries.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by te_chris on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:04PM (#20732842)
No I mean now, today August 18 2019, now that we actually know what it means and, more importantly, what it will cost. Why on earth would we do this?
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by michaelt on Sunday August 18, 2019 @06:10PM (#20733254)

  now that we actually know
  [...] what it will cost
  Why on earth would we do this?
To some euroskeptics, the cost is irrelevant.

Before the referendum, I heard euroskeptics call the EU undemocratic citing the process where the 2005 EU Constitution / 2008 Treaty of Lisbon. They saw the constitution-to-treaty change as bypassing the rejection of the former by French and Dutch referendums; and the second Irish referendum as bypassing the rejection by the first Irish referendum.

They saw this as analogous to an election in a tinpot dictatorship, where the Glorious Leader winning is the only possible outcome. That the EU had no taste for hearing the the average citizen's voice, unless it was supportive.

If you honestly believe the big thing that's wrong with the EU is that votes are only allowed so long as the outcome is pro-EU, earnestly implementing the referendum result come what may is really the only option. Anything that stands in the way of doing that only serves to prove the importance of doing that.

And unfortunately, the Tory party has a lot of euroskeptics.

Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by throwaway122378 on Sunday August 18, 2019 @04:50PM (#20732740)
The positive case for brexit is no longer being a part of the EU.
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by throwaway122379 on Sunday August 18, 2019 @04:52PM (#20732755)
Please elaborate as to exactly why that is a positive?
Re:Leaked Brexit Document Predicts 'Catastrophic Collapse' o... by rusk on Sunday August 18, 2019 @05:16PM (#20732932)
Hey look, there's plenty of negative things that could be said about the EU … it's not inconceivable that Brexit could even have been a good thing. An economy the size of the UK could have been an effective counter-balance to some of the more hegonmistic aspects, if it were still a "friend". If the whole thing hadn't been hijacked by the regressive factions, and they weren't slowly going round in circles giving 2 fingers to everybody … but that's not what has happened. The Brexit that is unfolding is an unmitigated mess for everybody in the UK bar the elite financial hawks who stand to benefit from it, and it will be a mess for Ireland, and it will especially be a disaster for Northern Ireland. You know who it won't be a disaster for? The rest of Europe …