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Re:U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds After Yields P... by stanfordkid on Saturday August 17, 2019 @08:22PM (#20727341)
Blindly investing money into “the poor” is a foolish endeavor that yields little strength to a country. Herd immunity and preventative health is a quantifiable thing and so I support universal healthcare. But we have to stop this disasterous assumption that the only reason people are poor is their circumstances.

The best way to help poor people is to lower the minimum wage so they can get jobs.

Subsidizing the poor increases consumption which is bad not only for the first order effect (throwing away money)... but also for the little thought of second order effect: it incentivizes people to build businesses that cater to consumption that was in the first place unsustainable. Smart people that could have been doing something else instead facilitate the creation of businesses that are only funded by inflation and cheap credit.

This is the story of the US economy in the past 30 years. The two largest disasters in recent history: the student loan bubble and the housing bubble, were both founded upon the notion that we should “give money away” without any real measurement of whether or not there would be a return on capital.

Our government should invest the majority of capital in basic research, healthcare, education and infrastructure... not the creation of a consumption driven bloated welfare state.

Re:U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds After Yields P... by SubiculumCode on Saturday August 17, 2019 @10:01PM (#20727756)
A serious and frequently permanent loss of productivity occurs when people live on a financial cliff where minor unfortunes can propel even smart individuals into unemployment and homelssness, and their children into poorer education outcomes, while minor investments and more equitible distributions of wealth in a society create robust sustainable growth.

In the case of student loans, they should have come with restrictions on increases in admin costs at the college as tuition has inordinately increased. In terms of the housing crisis, do not discount the role of predatory lending by institutions that used to engender trust. I find your position to ignore context and subtelty, and to propogate myths about poverty and the impoverished as primarily being the result of a meritocracy.

Re:U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds After Yields P... by throwaway34241 on Saturday August 17, 2019 @10:09PM (#20727777)
> The best way to help poor people is to lower the minimum wage so they can get jobs.

Raising the minimum wage can have a negative effect on jobs, but unless it's hard to find minimum wage jobs right now, I don't see what lowering the minimum wage will achieve. Also there's labor force participation to consider - if unskilled jobs are too low paying, some people at the margins will choose not to participate (for example, by living with their parents).

> Subsidizing the poor increases consumption which is bad not only for the first order effect (throwing away money)... but also for the little thought of second order effect: it incentivizes people to build businesses that cater to consumption that was in the first place unsustainable.

> Our government should invest the majority of capital in basic research, healthcare, education and infrastructure

Consumption funded by debt may be bad, but I wouldn't suggest that consumption (in other words, having a consumer-driven economy) is throwing away money. Many goods that people spend their own money on (consumer electronics, cars, clothing, etc) have competitive markets with reasonable prices and/or steady improvements. On the contrary to throwing away money, it seems pretty efficient at delivering utility. Especially when compared to recent trends in healthcare, education, and infrastructure.

I agree with some of the other comments that productivity determines the long-run living standards of a country, and that consumption is not investment and it may be a bad idea to finance it with debt. But I don't think the answer is to reduce people's ability to consume goods & services, but rather to enable doing it in a sustainable way.

Re:U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds After Yields P... by stanfordkid on Saturday August 17, 2019 @10:46PM (#20727910)
The decreases in price for these consumer goods you mention came largely as a result of globalization and offshoring of production. Our economy went upmarket towards services which were largely meant to facilitate this consumption (eg advertising and mass media). The American public became lazy, conditioned to consume and entitled.

The modern American consumer is only in debt because debt is so easy to obtain, not because his wages are too low to survive.

Visit Latin America or Asia where there throngs of people much happier and healthier on far less. The welfare state makes the familial structure unnecessary in America — I won’t comment on this. But it is a third order effect even more deeply troubling than the economic ones I highlighted earlier.

Re:U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds After Yields P... by throwaway34241 on Sunday August 18, 2019 @12:04AM (#20728174)
Electronics manufacturing has been outsourced for a long time, but the prices still fall (and labor is not getting any cheaper in China). Both electronics and cars are designed in the US and many cars are made here. I'll give that clothing is mostly about outsourcing.

I can agree maybe broadly that there are social trends in the US that are contributing to people being unhappy, but I don't think lowering the minimum wage will put that particular cat back in that particular bag. And besides, is it really minimum wage workers, of all people, who are lazy and entitled? Most minimum wage jobs are not particularly pleasant and you just have to do the work and put up with it, and you aren't showered with free food, high salaries and other perks. Do other countries where entry-level workers have it better have more social problems?

I suppose maybe they are entitled compared to some third-world countries. What does that make a tech worker then? We complain about the free food not infrequently.

I think attempting to blanket punish people who are willing to work but don't have valuable skills in the global labor market, will only backfire politically, and probably deservedly so.

Re:U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds After Yields P... by stanfordkid on Sunday August 18, 2019 @12:34AM (#20728256)
I agree it is too late to enact things like a lower minimum wage — the damage is already done.

The real problem came from cheap consumer credit... everything in our economy is built around the existence of such credit. Consumers are conditioned and targeted to consume and borrow. Full stop.

Same thing happened with education — 4 years of productive time were siphoned towards college degrees that didn’t mean much.

This is the gutting of the middle class... not fiscal conservatism.

Re:U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds After Yields P... by throwaway34241 on Sunday August 18, 2019 @02:03AM (#20728529)
The student loan thing (and the cost inflation) is definitely part of it.

I'd also point to globalization and technological changes - unskilled labor is less valuable when there's more supply from automation and outsourcing. And technology has enabled more consolidation even on the nation level - it's now easier for one company to service the entire market; think Amazon vs local shops, or Uber vs local taxi companies. Better communication and transport joins many local markets into one big market and creates fewer, bigger winners.

Land use policies probably have something to do with it too. Historically in the US people have moved from place to place for economic opportunities as new industries developed. But doing new urban development is more difficult than it used to be and supply is added very slowly. The areas with the most global companies and economic opportunities are mostly a handful of cities, but the cost has become prohibitive for new entrants that aren't skilled professionals (despite there being plenty of regular jobs available with higher wages). And of course the people already living there get squeezed too.

Re:U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds After Yields P... by coldcode on Saturday August 17, 2019 @08:56PM (#20727489)
We should force the poor into indentured servitude or slavery as a proper solution, as the South was better off when workers were all unpaid and uncared for. Giving everyone's tax money to wealthy people will result in a better world for everyone. /s

Libertarian fantasy must be a pretty dull medium. Always the same story.

Re:U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds After Yields P... by voldacar on Saturday August 17, 2019 @09:18PM (#20727596)
This wasnt a very substantive comment...

People go to HN to avoid discourse like this :(