Yikes, this whole thread is so provincial.

Yes, the US president is an economic imbecile, but $50 billion dollars in tariffs is a drop in the ocean of the $100 trillion global bond market.

This is a much, much bigger deal than US politics or a US trade war.

Interest rates are negative on $15 trillion worth of debt. All German government bonds have negative rates, all the way out to 30 years.

Policymakers don't like to say the word "deflation" out loud, because even talking about it could make it happen.

But when the economy softens, and central banks have no more ammunition left to stimulate the economy, deflation could be the terrifying result.

Negative long-term rates are what you would expect in a deflationary economy. And, yes, you can have a deflationary economy even while some prices are increasing.

Humans are susceptible to narratives and trends. Even if the total dollar amount is low if every business cuts spending by 10% “just to be careful in case things get bad” because they here a narrative that the trade war will reduce demand...their collective action will create a recession.

How does deflation affect all the stock buybacks happening? Under these conditions, are stocks a good place to keep your cash?

Deep state is very much a thing: https://billmoyers.com/2014/02/21/anatomy-of-the-deep-state/

Dismissing it as a thing and calling it plain ole bureaucracy is quite a naive worldview.

Bureaucracy does moderate the effects of political leaders in exactly the ways the markets expected. It's extreme to ascribe a "worldview," no less a "naive" one, and it's a failure to appreciate context that you'd cite Bill Moyers' usage of the term when most people here know we're talking about Breitbart's usage. They each describe very different processes, institutional actors, etc., and yes, Breitbart's usage is often coterminous with the administrative state. Bureaucracy.

Excellent response.

You're right - I was responding to an imagined position in an unrelated / irrelevant political context, whereas a more careful reading makes it clear what we're discussing here is the moderating effects of bureaucracy.

My apologies for adding noise instead of considering contributions more carefully!