Do you really believe that's going to happen? The "cold war" with China is heating up.

>governments add surprise stimulus in the coming months

What happens to interest rates?

>If recession fears go away in a few months

What do you mean by "recession fears"? People are examining the data and seeing the global economy slowing down; it isn't arbitrary, it's data driven, with the caveat that no indicator is perfect.

>*those long term treasuries would lose value on the principal and you could very much experience capital losses (if you sell).

Yes, investing has risk. But I find it odd you criticize using simple indicators, then state that if recession fears subside, treasuries will lose value. The value of bonds fluctuates with interest rates, not "recession fears". We can very easily have a bull market with falling rates. It's happened before.