^ This is the exact kind of message that makes me want to pull out of the market. Although, I already did a few weeks back when the S&P did a head and shoulders (which turned out to be a false positive, apparently). Still not rushing to put any more money in the market, though.

Yep. "There hasn't been a better time to buy a home" was pitched to me back in 2008.

The message that the stock market trends upwards except for random movements that retail investors can't predict was as true last year as it is today.

Definitely came to mind when reading that. I was a Ford brat, and the husband and I bought when stock was down around the $2 mark. We've made a considerable amount.

I just finished reading a book about the life of Laura Ingalls Wilder, who lived through something like 6 different depressions. Given the historic rates of inflation, innovation, and globalization, I don't really think the stock market is a bad bet IF you're willing and able to play the long game. The 20-30 years game. Get more conservative as you get older. Yes, still possible to get screwed, but it's one of many ways to keep options open.

Sounds like you're selling when it's low and buying when it's high.

I sold at the height of the right-hand shoulder. So if I stayed in, I'd actually be worse-off now.

You might be right on some of these points, but your delivery seems meant to cause doubt because it is unconditionally optimistic. It causes the reader to question you. Do you mean to cause doubt?

Yes, the market is perfect and infallible.

Maybe not infallible, but most finance professionals have heard of these indicators. Isn't a it a bit hubristic to think that the HN front page will feature economic news that surprises wallstreet?

No, because wall street maximizes profits and leaves individual investors holding the bag. You want to get in front of the herd, not be chasing it.

Right, but when the media reports on macro indicators they're doing it on bag time. Wall street has already seen the yield curves, and that is how they leave retail investors holding the bags. But now that everyone still in the market is holding an empty bag, the S&P accurately represents the value of the bag. It's not a bad deal today because the baggening already happened.

The bag hasn't been passed yet.

That's going to happen when the funds go through a sell-off. They know it too, which is why they're trading despite the indicators, because they're more plugged into the market info that will let them get off right before the cliff.

Unless you're day trading, individuals should be trimming right now and increasing cash holdings, because the indicators available point to the sell off coming. You're welcome to try to run with the fund herd but they're better equipped and do it full time, meaning you'll be struggling to keep up with them. Better to get in front of the funds than chase them.

Right, assume everything is up 8% from where it is today, 3 years from today. The reality may be lower than higher, but unless you're taking on a ton of risk, you have an excellent chance at having more than you did today.