Re:Global economy is probably in recession
by whatshisface on Friday August 09, 2019 @01:57PM
(#20656775)
Right, but when the media reports on macro indicators they're doing it on bag time. Wall street has already seen the yield curves, and that is how they leave retail investors holding the bags. But now that everyone still in the market is holding an empty bag, the S&P accurately represents the value of the bag. It's not a bad deal today because the baggening already happened.
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Re:Global economy is probably in recession
by bduerst on Friday August 09, 2019 @03:27PM
(#20657559)
The bag hasn't been passed yet.
That's going to happen when the funds go through a sell-off. They know it too, which is why they're trading despite the indicators, because they're more plugged into the market info that will let them get off right before the cliff.
Unless you're day trading, individuals should be trimming right now and increasing cash holdings, because the indicators available point to the sell off coming. You're welcome to try to run with the fund herd but they're better equipped and do it full time, meaning you'll be struggling to keep up with them. Better to get in front of the funds than chase them.
Re:Global economy is probably in recession
by msmerberry on Friday August 09, 2019 @02:03PM
(#20656843)
Right, assume everything is up 8% from where it is today, 3 years from today. The reality may be lower than higher, but unless you're taking on a ton of risk, you have an excellent chance at having more than you did today.