That is the analysis they have done.
> If everybody would go electric Today, the price of a battery would go to infinity, as there is not enough supply for that demand.
I don’t understand why this is relevant, they are talking about a comparison for projected costs in 25 years, there’s plenty of time for battery production to increase, it would be 15% a year over that timeframe even for a total transition, and the industry is currently sustaining 75% a year growth.
25 years seems like a long time, but it’s a relevant timescale for oil investments made today and in the next years.
It is possible to create electric cars nowadays, but as we live in a capitalistic society we forget easily that we don't have unlimited resources on this planet. Lithium is still more rare than oil. I don't see how this is sustainable at all.
As long as it is legal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phase-out_of_fossil_fuel_vehic...
So that means, you need a battery. The price of the battery, its decay and so on, has to be taken into account in that price. Does that aforementioned price for the barrel of oil includes that? I think not.
If everybody would go electric Today, the price of a battery would go to infinity, as there is not enough supply for that demand. If the changes happens too fast, the price for the battery and it's longtime cost would be higher than oil, even with oil at $100. Which for me makes all this argumentation that oil will die useless and pointless.
And to those prophets of "Oil will disappear": Oil will still exist, but won't have a monopoly in cars, some machinery etc anymore. I believe consumers will still buy cars powered by oil as long as it is worth it.
It's an industry that generates a lot of jobs, has a huge effect on GDP and I'm very sure countries will change very gradually to electric vehicles.