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Re:When Worse Is Better (2011) by JoeAltmaier on Sunday August 04, 2019 @09:40AM (#20606450)
Agreed, "Yes/No" is in no way correlated with "50/50 chance".

Will I win the lottery? Yes/No. 50/50?

My favorite conflation is the "are we in a simulation?" argument. That's a yes/no also, and the ignorant conclusion is that its very likely we are. Without any statistics on the probability either way.

Re:When Worse Is Better (2011) by TeMPOraL on Sunday August 04, 2019 @12:45PM (#20607605)
Also, Pascal's wager. The presented sides of the bet aren't equal, because on the one hand you have existence of a particular God, and on the other hand its non-existence, whereas in the real world, there's a whole space of possible Gods that people believe in that are not included in the wager.
Re:When Worse Is Better (2011) by dredmorbius on Monday August 05, 2019 @12:26PM (#20615416)
"Wheareas in the real world" is an interesting phrasing for that poylemma.