Definitely corner cases like the broad side of a tractor trailer stretched across the highway will prevent FSD from being remotely possible in 2020. Complex traffic light arrangements in multi-lane intersections, unprotected left turns, even driving over a lane marker to avoid a fixed obstacle are still TBD features in the AutoPilot code base.
Those are the features they will be adding in 2019/2020 to get what Musk is calling “feature complete” but regardless of what he has claimed, from personal experience, I do not see how the cars could operate without any human driver in 2020 except under highly constrained conditions like “in parking lot not to exceed 3mph” and even that I think will expose corner cases with cars getting stuck and needing driver assistance.
What I do think we will see in 2020 is a respectable percentage of trips being completed start-to-finish with AutoPilot engaged the entire time.
However, then and now, the driver absolutely, positively, must always be looking out the window when operating AutoPilot.
If you approach a truck from the rear, you have a rear aspect on it before having a side aspect on it.
If you have overtaken by a truck, you have a front aspect on it before having a side aspect on it.
In terms of overpasses being falsely identified as the broadside of a truck, this explanation feels more and more confusing to me as Tesla doubles down on vision-only self-driving (as opposed to LIDAR-assisted). Why would a camera and computer-vision algorithm ever falsely identify an overpass, which in normal weather is viewable and trackable from at least a mile away, as a broadside of a truck suddenly running through an intersection?
I just make sure that when I'm a passenger in her car I have my hand resting on the emergency brake, so I'm ready to stop the car if I need to. It's much safer that way.
GreenTheOnly posts lots of videos of internal captures from his Tesla AutoPilot (I believe he “jailbreaked” his Tesla to capture them. Here’s an example of what the software is tracking [1].
He was able to capture one case where there happened to be a trailer backing up / parking in front of him a couple months back [2]
[1] - https://youtu.be/7ztK5AhShqU
[2] - https://twitter.com/greentheonly/status/1118330606146998272?...
(I'm 1/2 waiting for this to appear in The Onion.)
> Neither Autopilot nor the driver noticed the white side of the tractor trailer against a brightly lit sky, so the brake was not applied.
The trailer in this recent case was also white (not sure what the lighting conditions were). Regardless of whether it is legally the driver's fault, how can AP be making what seems to be the same exact error 3 years ago when Musk says Telsa's full self-driving will be ready in 2020? White trailers are not exactly an edge-case on U.S. roads.
(worth noting that in 2016, Tesla's AP was built by Mobileye; now it is in-house)
[0] https://www.tesla.com/blog/tragic-loss