Currently, 1/3 of working-age Norwegians work in the public sector. 1/3 works in the private sector, and the final third are either unemployed or qualify for government benefits. (Meaning: Retired, long-term disabled, in full-time parental leave and so on). That this seems sustainable at all is very strange. We might as well go straight to a large-scale basic income experiment, because we almost have a basic income system in place already. In my opinion, this would be a more honest way of providing government benefits than the system we already have.
Currently, 3-4% of the oil fund is liquidated each year to pay for the deficit in the national budget, while total taxation has in fact _increased_ under the current Right government.
To my eyes, Norway has an exotic form of Dutch Disease in the form of our government spending, which is prevented from becoming a catastrophe by the oil fund. It will be interesting to see what the future brings, but it's not all roses.
I’m just opposed to some aspects of the sustainability and wisdom of the current Norwegian system, as well as slightly disillusioned regarding the lack of quality debate around this in the country :)
Norway already has state grants for innovative startups, which when boosted by oil money, could generate a similar environment for entrepreneurs and innovative business, allowing people and companies to take larger risks. If this is executed correctly, it would make Norway the spearhead of whatever the next oil is, since companies from other countries will get pushback from their investors when taking the same risks or going for years without generating revenue.
When the oil runs out in 20 to 50 years, the future of the norwegian ecomony depends on finding new industries. Any spending of oil money that doesn't go towards securing this is irresponsible, IMO.
That's still about 20 years away at their current growth rate, and the government budget would probably increase by then, but it's still probably achievable. What happens then? Norway could theoretically cut its other income, including income tax, to zero and still maintain its current expenses.