But that requires a very engaged PO who really gets what grooming is really about. Also, I don't know what it is with MBA types, but it really seems like anything that can be turned into a KPI, will be turned into a KPI, without ever pausing to think about whether it makes any sense to do so. And that makes story points radioactive: In the absence of intense and intelligent regulatory oversight, their potential value is more-or-less negated by their potential for abuse and misuse.
Incidentally, this is what fascinates me about the Forth approach: The unflinching dedication to stripping the system down to only the things that you actually need. The problem I see is, the Forth way of doing it seems to assume you're working with an army of one. How do you scale that up to a modern product team that may comprise 10, 50, 100, even 1000 people?
If the quality of your estimations has ever come up on your annual review, that's them bargaining you down by making you feel bad about yourself.
Someone in a video I watched recently pointed out that story points per week is a graph plotting time on both axes.
One of the earlier agile methodologies (FDD) had one thing figured out: the law of large numbers works just fine for long-term estimation, as long as you can identify the stories, and the range of story 'sizes' is within an order of magnitude (eg, a day vs 2 weeks). You don't have to give a shit if a story is 4 points or 7. That's a waste of everyone's time and especially energy. It's horizontal aggression condensed into a management model. We need to start refusing, as a collective, to engage. The only discussion you need to have is whether this story is less than two weeks, more than two weeks, or way more than two weeks. Those happen at a much lower frequency.