If for whatever reason (and having a moderately stable currency is the answer there) there is more demand for bonds than supply, then the price will fall. This has nothing to do with economic reality and everything to do with market pricing mechanisms. Whether it´s good in the long term for the government to increase its lending this way, is a completely separate question.
Secondarily, many prospective borrowers of these projects are already in debt, and have cash flows which are not growing fast enough to borrow more.
why should a gov't project need to have any real returns? Social returns is enough. If the city is nicer to live in, if the businesses thrive because of increaed foot traffic, lower car accident rates, cleaner air etc.
We're running our governments like businesses and you're not going to find any nimble or disruptive startups in the mix.
Which isn't to say that I think the government should do what it do out of spite. Is there any chance of... I dunno, cutting off the public handout and then regulating the private vacuum-fillers sufficiently? Or does the implied drug analogy here reach its logical conclusion (on the black market)?
Adam Davidson: All right. Here's one of his speeches that really drove that army of investment managers crazy.
Alan Greenspan: The FOMC stands prepared to maintain a highly accommodative stance of policy for as long as needed to promote satisfactory economic performance.
Adam Davidson: You might not believe me, but that little statement, that is central banker's speak for, hey, global pool of money, screw you.
Alex Blumberg: Come on, that's not what he said.
Adam Davidson: It is. I speak central banker. Believe me, that's what he said. What he is technically saying is he's going to keep the fed funds rate-- that's when you hear, the fed interest rate-- at the absurdly low level of 1%.
And that sends a message to every investor in the world, you are not going to make any money at all on US Treasury bonds for a very long time. Go somewhere else. We can't help you.
https://www.thisamericanlife.org/355/transcript
To the question: why should you get a return above inflation at all?
I guess one way of looking at it is: do you want to treat low-risk returns for conservative investors as a sort of public utility guaranteed by the government? Or do you want to put it in the hands of private industry?