1932 neutron discovered
1942 first atomic reactor
1945 fission bomb
1897 electron discovered
1940's vacuum tube computers
1970's integrated circuits
1980's first AI wave fails, AI winter begins
2012 AI spring begins
2019 AI can consistently recognize a jpeg of a cat, but still not walk like a cat
???? Human level AGI
1943 First mathematical neural network model
1958 Learning neural network classifies objects in spy plane photos
1965 Deep learning with multi-layer perceptrons
2010 ImageNet error rate 28%
2011 ImageNet error rate 25%
2012 ImageNet error rate 16%
2013 ImageNet error rate 11%
2017 ImageNet error rate 3%
2019 Pre-AGIExtrapolating as you seem to be here, when should I expect to see a total conversion reactor show up? I want 100% of the energy in that Uranium, dammit - not the piddly percentages you get from fission!
Seriously, I think you overestimate how predictable nuclear weapons were. Fission was discovered in 1938.
We haven't even had the AGI equivalent of the Rutherford model of the atom yet: what's the definition of consciousness? What is even the definition of intelligence?
However, we are not getting impressively close to AGI. That's why we need to stop the AGI alarmism and get our act together on the enormous societal ramifications that machine learning is already having.
All these things have surged incredibly in less than a decade.
It's always a long way off until it isn't.
Not at all, these are all one-trick poneys and bring you nowhere close to real AGI which is akin to human intelligence.
It was hard to predict when or if such a thing could be made, but everyone knew what was under discussion.
Compare this to AGI, some vaguely emergent property of a complex computer system that no one can define to anyone else's satisfaction. Attempts to be more precise what AGI is, how it would first manifest itself, and why on earth we should be afraid of it, rapidly devolve into nerd ghost stories.