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Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by remote_phone on Sunday July 21, 2019 @11:54AM (#20491877)
Vancouver will suffer from “be careful what you wish for”. If house prices drop it will kill the economy because people will will be locked in their underwater homes for the rest of their lives. Deflation will destroy the entire economy.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by chiefalchemist on Sunday July 21, 2019 @01:21PM (#20492415)
> Deflation will destroy the entire economy.

How healthy and legit is an economy if this is the case? The same can be said of a Ponzi scheme, yes.

It seems that the change of the rules effects the current winners the most. And thus the unsustainable persists...until it doesn't.

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by bmurphy1976 on Sunday July 21, 2019 @02:32PM (#20492875)
The problem with deflation (and hyper-inflation) is that people are irrational, not that the economies are illegitimate. The danger is that people acting irrationally causes a vicious feedback loop. That feedback loop could potentially take down the best of economies
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by dahdum on Sunday July 21, 2019 @03:29PM (#20493172)
Deflation doesn't cause people to behave irrationally. The problem is that rational reactions to deflation such as hoarding cash, avoiding debt, and cutting spending become a drag on the economy.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by ced on Sunday July 21, 2019 @06:21PM (#20494035)
hoarding cash, avoiding debt, and cutting spending

Most of the people around here immediately buy something as soon as "they can afford it" - with credit. I find it hard to believe that these same people would suddenly hoard cash.

Wikipedia says

The Great Depression was regarded by some as a deflationary spiral.[35] A deflationary spiral is the modern macroeconomic version of the general glut controversy of the 19th century. Another related idea is Irving Fisher's theory that excess debt can cause a continuing deflation. Whether deflationary spirals can actually occur is controversial, with their possibility being disputed by freshwater economists (including the Chicago school of economics) and Austrian School economists.

It sounds more like a theoretical concern than an immutable law of nature to me.

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by bmurphy1976 on Monday July 22, 2019 @07:08PM (#20503122)
That's kind of my point. Those are not rational reactions during a deflationary period but that's what people will do anyway.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by dahdum on Tuesday July 23, 2019 @03:15PM (#20509360)
They are rational for individuals acting in their own self-interest, and that's what economic theory is based on.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by chiefalchemist on Sunday July 21, 2019 @02:41PM (#20492926)
The problem with economic theory is that it assumes people are rational. There is absolutely zero historic record to support that. Until economics embraces reality it's foolish for the rest of us to hold a false god so high.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by dodobirdlord on Sunday July 21, 2019 @05:13PM (#20493709)
> The problem with economic theory is that it assumes people are rational.

No, it doesn't. [0]

> There is absolutely zero historic record to support that.

Yes, there is. [1]

> Until economics embraces reality it's foolish for the rest of us to hold a false god so high.

Sorry to be kinda blunt here, but I'd like to appeal to you to try to maintain a higher standard of discourse on HN.

[0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Behavioral_economics

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Keynesian_economics

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by chiefalchemist on Monday July 22, 2019 @07:06AM (#20496874)
What % of economists are versed and apply Behavioral Economics?

Ironic. Your reply does more to support my point than your own.

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by eloff on Sunday July 21, 2019 @12:20PM (#20492035)
One can only dream that prices correct that much. But while expensive for Canada, prices are not wholly unreasonable for such a desirable city. And the population here is expected to increase by a million (33%) by 2050. That just won't be handled on the supply side the way zoning is done. So long term I expect prices to continue on the upward trajectory. Speaking as a renter with no house in the race.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by seanmcdirmid on Sunday July 21, 2019 @06:06PM (#20493961)
Except if you have a high end tech job in Vancouver that only pays 80k/year or less.

Unless you are already rich, it makes sense to get a T1 and head off south to Seattle where the houses are still pricey but the salaries are much higher.

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by eloff on Sunday July 21, 2019 @09:03PM (#20494698)
I'm not sure exactly what that had to do with my comment, but I've long told anyone who will listen in tech that you can double your salary by moving to the US or working remote for a US company with no Canadian office. Why anyone in tech remains in Canada makes no sense to me.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by seanmcdirmid on Sunday July 21, 2019 @09:13PM (#20494735)
Just that Vancouver property values are not sustainable on Vancouver salaries.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by eloff on Monday July 22, 2019 @01:12AM (#20495463)
They're not, but Vancouver is a very international city and owning a single family home is hardly a fundamental right. People who choose to live in Vancouver on Vancouver salaries pretty much have no hope of owning a home. That most locals can't afford it doesn't make it unsustainable unfortunately as long as there are enough people willing to live there anyway.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by seanmcdirmid on Monday July 22, 2019 @11:54AM (#20499197)
Sure, but as as tech worker, I don't think I could make it living there, at least not with the lifestyle I'm used to in the Seattle area. Vancouver is also one of the cities to get hit big whenever Asia has a cold, it took their real estate market more than a decade to recover from Japan. In the late 90s they would advertise condos for $150k or so.

When China's bubble finally pops, it will be Japan 2.0+ for Vancouver.

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by eloff on Monday July 22, 2019 @01:14PM (#20500099)
Here's hoping! It would be nice not to have to win a lottery (startup or 7-11 style) in order to afford a home here.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by ninth_ant on Sunday July 21, 2019 @12:38PM (#20492148)
Home prices have not fallen meaningfully since those measures were taken except at the very high end. At a certain point naysayers may have to admit they were wrong about the sky falling.

Increased density allowances continue to prop up lot values on single family homes, which allows homeowners to not be underwater but also increase housing supply when they are torn down and duplexes/condos are built in place.

Overall I feel like most people are happy with the outcome thus far.

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by jbay808 on Sunday July 21, 2019 @02:37PM (#20492909)
I'm not sure the consequences of falling home prices will be as catastrophic for the economy as it sounds.

At the moment the high price of real estate is putting a lot of strain on almost every other sector of the economy: tourism (cheaper to visit other beautiful places like Banff), tech (it's expensive to attract talent with high cost of living), services (similar deal). It's also driven out a lot of younger families which can have delayed impacts on the economy.

On the other hand, it's been great for the construction industry, tax revenue, and infrastructure investment. The high price of land has also justified investments in density which will result in a lasting increase of land value even if the market cools.

There are also a lot of people who have sold their expensive homes and taken the money to cheaper areas, like Victoria and Nanaimo, distributing the windfall a bit.

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by katbyte on Sunday July 21, 2019 @01:53PM (#20492618)
A lot of us are hopeful it will happen as that’s when we will buy so ️

Some will win some will lose and I have little sympathy for those who entered the market in the last 5 years expecting it to keep increasing as it has.

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by petersellers on Sunday July 21, 2019 @05:12PM (#20493704)
Your statement comes across as rather heartless. What about those of us who entered in the last 5 years just because they were ready to settle down in an area they liked?
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by Tiktaalik on Sunday July 21, 2019 @05:42PM (#20493851)
Sales and land values are plunging in Vancouver and even with the accordingly significantly decreased property transfer tax revenues the economy is great and the BC NDP government has posted a big surplus.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-finances-...

Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by pen2l on Sunday July 21, 2019 @12:11PM (#20491989)
It'll destroy chiefly the minority rich though, the minority capitalists. And since they are in fewer numbers than the workers, I don't know if it'll impact the greater economy so much. Somewhere in this, Vancouver might become being a neat place to be I think.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by whatshisface on Sunday July 21, 2019 @12:35PM (#20492127)
Unlike the situation in Marx's time, many workers have their retirement savings in "capitalist" equity devices like home ownership and the stock market. 2008 was terrible for them in America. The divide between workers who can only access linear growth and capitalists who can access exponential growth no longer exists.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by the-dude on Sunday July 21, 2019 @02:34PM (#20492888)
Where did they stash their wealth in Marx's time?
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by whatshisface on Sunday July 21, 2019 @03:30PM (#20493180)
Cash, mostly.
Re:Chinese Money in the U.S. Dries Up as Trade War Drags On by ShroudedNight on Sunday July 21, 2019 @12:30PM (#20492100)
As a Canadian living in Markham, I am also deeply concerned about the growing inequality (or at least its growing visibility) and the damage it can do to our social fabric.

That being said, modulo some extreme reconfiguration of Canadian society, workers need someone to pay them. I think we should be _very_ cautious about unduly alienating capitalists in an indiscriminant manner.