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A comment on 2011 Predictions. Parent comment

Re:2011 Predictions by brianbreslin on Tuesday December 28, 2010 @06:16PM (#2047236)
My guess is based on the fact apps will retail for more than iOS apps, so the gross sales will hit $1B quicker. Think $20/app vs $2 though iOS apps probably benefit from impulse shopping a lot
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Re:2011 Predictions by trotsky on Tuesday December 28, 2010 @06:39PM (#2047316)
What's the size of the OS X software market in total? Guesstimating* , it looks like it was somewhere like $5B-$8B in 2008. Strip out OS sales, large licensees, unsupported environments, unsupported regions and all non-SOHO business sales and what do you figure is left? $2B-$3B maybe? Hard for me to believe that Apple is going to be able to take a 50% chunk out of retail and direct sales in the first year, especially on the high end packages like office or photoshop.

* http://www.bsa.org/country/Public%20Policy/~/media/Files/Pol...

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Re:2011 Predictions by glhaynes on Tuesday December 28, 2010 @07:57PM (#2047530)
I agree with you that $1B seems optimistic for 2011, but consider also that the Mac App Store may increase the total number of apps sold, perhaps drastically. I certainly expect I'll buy more Mac apps when they're more easily discoverable, more easily managed, and one-click-purchaseable.
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