1. Tunnelled & encrypted (and in most cases, easily identifiable as VPN) traffic coming from your VPN client to your server
2. Untunnelled traffic from your server to whatever server endpoint you're visiting.
Correlating the two, even when it's a massive multi-user service, is not difficult for a hosting provider with half a clue to do. Especially when handed a police order (which they usually have an obligation to not tell you about).
> I seriously doubt my hosting provider would jeopardize their business by snooping on ... a vpn given the breach of trust would cause large customers to ditch them.
Any half decent network provider logs sampled flow data by default. This is all that is needed to de-anonymise any vpn session. Even on a host that is shared by hundreds of VPN sessions.
Goals are to hide your traffic from ISP (1) and your real IP from internet (2). Self host VPN achieves (1) but not (2), your VPN's IP is yours truly.
Maybe I just can't always trust my ISP (ex: public wifi).
If I want to also hide my IP I can use Tor with or without a VPN.