Article below says Aramaco's bond offering indicated they were near break at $45/barrel, vs the $10 often repeated. Their production seems to include a ton of waste. Beyond that, Saudi Arabia is estimated to need $70-85/barrel to balance their budget (though they can borrow if need be).

In the past the consensus was they could outlast frackers, but I think that's changed in the past several years.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2019/04/01/saudi-aramco...